Al-Fayha 0-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fayha host Al-Fateh at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 13 January 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 2D 0L this season (6 games, 2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.17 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 6 home games (83%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's away record: 2W 2D 4L from 8 road trips in Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fayha 1.10 PPG, Al-Fateh 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Fayha have won 0, Al-Fateh 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (15 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (15 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 47% versus Al-Fateh 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fayha 20% | Al-Fateh 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.11 xG and Al-Fateh 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.793 / defence 0.824 | Al-Fateh attack 0.813 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.186. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Al-Fayha games / 15 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 42% | Draw 33% | Al-Fateh 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Fateh 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 17% | Al-Fateh 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 13 Jan 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 42% | Draw 33% | Al-Fateh 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Al-Fayha 1.11 / Al-Fateh 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.793 / def 0.824 | Al-Fateh attack 0.813 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Al-Fateh xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 11:30 on Thursday 13 January 2022 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Fayha 0 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 42% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
42%
2.38
33%
3.05
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
1.91
0.80
Al-Fateh xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
8%
12.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.80 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Fayha come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 6D 5L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.07 PPG from 15 outings (4W 4D 7L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.20 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Fayha's home form reads 3W 2D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Al-Fayha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.33 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 4W 6D 5L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fayha's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 2.20 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Fayha go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2023, when Al-Fayha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Fayha
5
Draws
0
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 5, Al-Fateh have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Fayha 20% BTTS, Al-Fateh 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Fayha and 60% for Al-Fateh.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 40% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 60% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Fayha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh finished level at 0-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.11 xG and Al-Fateh 0.80 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.79 / defence 0.82 against Al-Fateh attack 0.81 / defence 1.27, drawn from 16/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 42% | Draw 33% | Al-Fateh 25%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 20%, Al-Fateh 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (15 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (15 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.20 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.