Al-Fateh 1-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Damac travel to Al Fateh club stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Thursday 26 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fateh — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh at Al Fateh club stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fateh 1.00 PPG, Damac 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fateh register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Damac in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Al-Fateh, 1 for Damac and 5 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Damac in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 68% and Damac 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 58% | Damac 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 2.02 xG and Damac 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.082 / defence 1.192 | Damac attack 0.624 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.389. Damac bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Al-Fateh games / 57 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 60% | Draw 23% | Damac 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Damac 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Damac 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 60% | Draw 23% | Damac 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Fateh 2.02 / Damac 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.082 / def 1.192 | Damac attack 0.624 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Damac xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Damac kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Damac kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 26 February 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Al-Fateh 1 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Damac part of?
Al-Fateh vs Damac is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 60% chance of winning, Damac a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Fateh and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Damac?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Fateh 3W | Draws 5 | Damac 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Damac in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Damac (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
60%
1.68
23%
4.44
18%
5.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.06
1.03
Damac xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
5.58
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
13%
7.57
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
2%
42.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.03 for Damac, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh come into this having played 57 games, going 18W 12D 27L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Damac sit at 0.88 PPG from 57 outings (11W 17D 29L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.16 PPG, Damac on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fateh's home form reads 11W 5D 12L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 0.71 points per game from 28 outings (4W 8D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 0.95 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 18W 12D 27L in their last 57 games (1.16 PPG), while Damac have gone 11W 17D 29L in their last 57 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Damac away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.36 PPG; Damac away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Damac runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Al-Fateh won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
6
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Damac have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Damac?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Fateh at 82%, Damac at 54%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Al-Fateh) and 46% (Damac). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Damac in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Al-Fateh's games and 54% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al-Fateh's matches and 46% of Damac's.
Do Al-Fateh and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Damac in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh and Damac share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh and Damac finished level at 1-1 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 2.02 xG and Damac 1.03 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fateh fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.08 / defence 1.19 against Damac attack 0.62 / defence 1.26, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 60% | Draw 23% | Damac 18%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 58%, Damac 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Damac's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.16 PPG, Damac 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.