Al-Fateh 1-2 Al Taee – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Taee encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al-Fateh host Al Taee at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Fateh — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taee stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Taee away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Al-Fateh are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al Taee 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Al Taee winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Al Taee in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 42% versus Al Taee 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 42% | Al Taee 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 2.26 xG and Al Taee 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.420 / defence 1.384 | Al Taee attack 0.644 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.244. Al-Fateh carry an above-average attack strength of 1.420 — their λ of 2.26 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Taee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Al-Fateh games / 26 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 63% | Draw 19% | Al Taee 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.59 | Draw 5.26 | Al Taee 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Fateh 50% | Al Taee 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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