Al-Fateh 3-1 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Fateh and Al-Raed meet at Al Fateh Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 18 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Al-Fateh have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Al-Raed (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al-Raed have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Al-Raed arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Al-Fateh 3W, Al-Raed 2W, 0D.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with Al-Fateh winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 60% versus Al-Raed 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 60% | Al-Raed 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.31 xG and Al-Raed 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.960 / defence 1.069 | Al-Raed attack 1.131 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.440. Data: 57 Al-Fateh games / 57 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 28% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Raed 2.13. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 50% | Al-Raed 70% BTTS from recent games.

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