Al-Fateh 4-4 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Al-Ittihad FC travel to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 May 2022, 16:50 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ittihad FC's 2.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Al-Fateh's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Fateh, 1 for Al-Ittihad FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2021, ended 0–3 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 40% versus Al-Ittihad FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 40% | Al-Ittihad FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.62 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.290 / defence 1.226 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.237 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.147. Al-Fateh carry an above-average attack strength of 1.290 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.237 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 Al-Fateh games / 25 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 40% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 16:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Al-Fateh 1.62 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.290 / def 1.226 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.237 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Al-Ittihad FC xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 16:50 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Fateh 4 - 4 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 36% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (1.29) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
36%
2.76
23%
4.40
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.36
1.74
Al-Ittihad FC xG
2.76
36%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
18%
5.69
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
6%
15.74
8%
12.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.74 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 8W 7D 10L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 19W 3D 3L from 25 games, 2.40 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.42 PPG from 12 outings (5W 2D 5L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 8W 2D 2L from 12 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.16 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 8W 7D 10L in their last 25 games (1.24 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 19W 3D 3L in their last 25 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.42 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
7
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al-Fateh 2-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 42%, Al-Ittihad FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al-Fateh) and 58% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 67% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Al-Fateh's matches and 58% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC finished level at 4-4 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.62 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.74 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Al-Fateh beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.29 / defence 1.23 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.24 / defence 1.07, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 41%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 40%, Al-Ittihad FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.