Al-Fateh 2-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Al-Fateh welcome Al-Ettifaq to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 12 January 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's home record at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Al-Fateh) versus 1.50 (Al-Ettifaq). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Al-Fateh's 30% rate and Al-Ettifaq's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Fateh, 0 for Al-Ettifaq and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 4–0 with Al-Fateh winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 42% versus Al-Ettifaq 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 51% | Al-Ettifaq 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.34 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.093 / defence 1.000 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.872 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.135. Data: 41 Al-Fateh games / 42 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 45% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ettifaq 3.57. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 30% | Al-Ettifaq 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Jan 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 45% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Fateh 1.34 / Al-Ettifaq 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.093 / def 1.000 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.872 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Al-Ettifaq xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 11:30 on Thursday 12 January 2023 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Fateh 2 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 45% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fateh 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 1.09x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.62
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.33
0.99
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
7%
13.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 0.99 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 14W 8D 19L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 11W 14D 16L from 41 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.22 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.30 PPG from 20 outings (8W 2D 10L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 5W 8D 7L from 20 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.22 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 14W 8D 19L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 11W 14D 16L in their last 41 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.30 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 19 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Fateh
1
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 7, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 4-3 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 35%, Al-Ettifaq 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al-Fateh) and 50% (Al-Ettifaq). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 40%; Al-Fateh have failed to score in 35% of games; Al-Ettifaq in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 40% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Fateh's matches and 50% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al-Ettifaq 2-0 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.34 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.99 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.09 / defence 1.00 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.87 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 45% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 28%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 51%, Al-Ettifaq 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.22 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.