Al-Faisaly FC 1-2 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Faisaly FC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Faisaly FC versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Friday 27 August 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Faisaly FC's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 2 Pro League outings this season: 1W 0D 1L. Last five: L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Faisaly FC's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al-Ittihad FC's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.50 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.018 / defence 1.160 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.729 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 0.947. Data: 2 Al-Faisaly FC games / 2 Al-Ittihad FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 50% | Draw 33% | Al-Ittihad FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 2.00 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Ittihad FC 6.25. Al-Faisaly FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Faisaly FC at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Faisaly FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 50% | Draw 33% | Al-Ittihad FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.50 / Al-Ittihad FC 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.018 / def 1.160 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.729 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.348 / away 0.947 • Poisson stance: Al-Faisaly FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Al-Ittihad FC xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Faisaly FC 1 - 2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 50% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 16% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Faisaly FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Faisaly FC's attack at 1.02x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (0.73x) against Al-Faisaly FC's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Faisaly FC Win
50%
1.99
33%
3.00
16%
6.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.31
0.80
Al-Ittihad FC xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
6.12
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
4%
27.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 0.80 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Faisaly FC come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 1D 0L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Faisaly FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.50 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad FC in 0%.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Al-Faisaly FC or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Faisaly FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Faisaly FC
0
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent matches and 0% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ittihad FC defy the odds to beat Al-Faisaly FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Faisaly FC 1-2 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Faisaly FC 1.50 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 0.80 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.16 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.10, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Faisaly FC 50% | Draw 33% | Al-Ittihad FC 16%, with Al-Faisaly FC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Al-Ittihad FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Faisaly FC 50%, Al-Ittihad FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Faisaly FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Al-Ittihad FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Faisaly FC shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.