Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Faisaly FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Al-Hazm travel to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Faisaly FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022, 14:40 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Faisaly FC stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Faisaly FC at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al-Faisaly FC are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hazm have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Faisaly FC at 0.60 PPG versus Al-Hazm's 0.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al-Hazm 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al-Faisaly FC in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 50% versus Al-Hazm 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 50% | Al-Hazm 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.36 xG and Al-Hazm 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.978 / defence 1.028 | Al-Hazm attack 0.536 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.197. Al-Hazm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Al-Faisaly FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Al-Faisaly FC games / 22 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 53% | Draw 30% | Al-Hazm 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Hazm 5.88. Al-Faisaly FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Faisaly FC as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Faisaly FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Faisaly FC 60% | Al-Hazm 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 14:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 53% | Draw 30% | Al-Hazm 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.36 / Al-Hazm 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.978 / def 1.028 | Al-Hazm attack 0.536 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Al-Faisaly FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Al-Hazm xG
37%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 14:40 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Faisaly FC 1 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 53% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Faisaly FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Faisaly FC's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Faisaly FC's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Faisaly FC Win
53%
1.88
30%
3.39
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.02
0.66
Al-Hazm xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
4%
22.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 11.9 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 0.66 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Faisaly FC's recent record stands at 4W 9D 9L from 22 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 14L across 22 games — 0.64 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Faisaly FC on 0.95 PPG, Al-Hazm on 0.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Faisaly FC have managed 4W 5D 2L from 11 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Al-Faisaly FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 1W 1D 9L across 11 trips, a 0.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Faisaly FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.68 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 4W 9D 9L in their last 22 games (0.95 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 3W 5D 14L in their last 22 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Faisaly FC's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 1.55 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Faisaly FC
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2022, when Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm?
Al-Faisaly FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Faisaly FC 64%, Al-Hazm 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Al-Faisaly FC) and 27% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent matches and 27% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 27% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Faisaly FC edge out Al-Hazm 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Faisaly FC beat Al-Hazm 1-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Faisaly FC 1.36 xG and Al-Hazm 0.66 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against Al-Hazm attack 0.54 / defence 1.20, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Faisaly FC 53% | Draw 30% | Al-Hazm 17%, with Al-Faisaly FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Faisaly FC 50%, Al-Hazm 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Faisaly FC 0.95 PPG, Al-Hazm 0.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Faisaly FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Faisaly FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.