Al-Ettifaq 2-0 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ettifaq (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ettifaq face Damac.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Damac make the trip to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 6 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 4W 4D 2L at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Damac have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Ettifaq. A 1.30 PPG lead over Damac (2.00 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Al-Ettifaq, who have won 5 of the last 9 meetings against Damac — a 2D 2W return for the visitors.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 3–1 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The historical record gives Al-Ettifaq a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 58% versus Damac 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 57% | Damac 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.69 xG and Damac 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.895 / defence 0.903 | Damac attack 0.657 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.363. Damac bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Al-Ettifaq's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Al-Ettifaq games / 53 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 58% | Draw 24% | Damac 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Damac 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ettifaq (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Damac 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 58% | Draw 24% | Damac 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.69 / Damac 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.895 / def 0.903 | Damac attack 0.657 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Damac xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Damac kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Damac kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 6 February 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Al-Ettifaq 2 - 0 Damac.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Damac part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Damac is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 58% chance of winning, Damac a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Damac?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 5W | Draws 2 | Damac 2W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Damac in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Damac (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.66x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.09
17%
5.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.50
0.81
Damac xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
5.74
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
3%
31.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.2 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.81 for Damac, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 23W 13D 17L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac's form line: 10W 17D 26L from 53 games, 0.89 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ettifaq are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Damac.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.33 PPG from 27 outings (10W 6D 11L).
On the road, Damac have gone 4W 8D 15L from 27 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 0.96 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 23W 13D 17L in their last 53 games (1.55 PPG), while Damac have gone 10W 17D 26L in their last 53 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Damac away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.33 PPG; Damac away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ettifaq have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 on 15 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
2
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 6, Damac have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 2-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Damac?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 48%, Damac 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Ettifaq) and 48% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 33% of games; Damac in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 56% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 48% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Damac in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Damac 2-0 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.69 xG and Damac 0.81 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Damac landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.90 / defence 0.90 against Damac attack 0.66 / defence 1.30, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 58% | Draw 24% | Damac 17%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 57%, Damac 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Damac's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.