Al-Ettifaq 2-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq host Al Okhdood at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 January 2026 at 14:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 5W 4D 1L at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Al-Ettifaq are significantly better at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Okhdood — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Okhdood have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Ettifaq, 1 for Al Okhdood and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 2–0 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 62% versus Al Okhdood 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 58% | Al Okhdood 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.70 xG and Al Okhdood 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.095 / defence 1.157 | Al Okhdood attack 0.645 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.461. Data: 45 Al-Ettifaq games / 45 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 51% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Al Okhdood 4.17. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al Okhdood 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jan 2026, 14:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 51% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.70 / Al Okhdood 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.095 / def 1.157 | Al Okhdood attack 0.645 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Al Okhdood xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 14:35 on Friday 2 January 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Ettifaq 2 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 51% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 2W | Draws 1 | Al Okhdood 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Al Okhdood (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 1.09x the league average against Al Okhdood's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
51%
1.97
25%
3.95
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.79
1.09
Al Okhdood xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
4%
22.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.09 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 45 games, going 18W 12D 15L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.87 PPG from 45 outings (10W 9D 26L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 7W 5D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Okhdood have taken 1.00 points per game from 22 outings (6W 4D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.93 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 18W 12D 15L in their last 45 games (1.47 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 10W 9D 26L in their last 45 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.18 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 30 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ettifaq go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
1
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Al Okhdood have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2026, when Al Okhdood 1-3 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Okhdood see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 54%, Al Okhdood 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Al-Ettifaq) and 36% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 36% of games; Al Okhdood in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 36% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 36% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Okhdood 2-0 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.70 xG and Al Okhdood 1.09 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Okhdood landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.09 / defence 1.16 against Al Okhdood attack 0.65 / defence 1.07, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 51% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 24%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 58%, Al Okhdood 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.