Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al-Ettifaq host Al Okhdood at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 32). Kick-off is Friday 17 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters, Al-Ettifaq have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Al Okhdood — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Al Okhdood have posted 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Al-Ettifaq have won 0, Al Okhdood 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Al-Ettifaq 0–1 Al Okhdood — a Al Okhdood win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 45% versus Al Okhdood 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 39% | Al Okhdood 58%). Note also that Al Okhdood surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Al-Ettifaq recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.42 xG and Al Okhdood 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.797 / defence 0.876 | Al Okhdood attack 0.556 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.391. Al-Ettifaq's attack rating of 0.797 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.42. Al Okhdood's defence rating of 1.247 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ettifaq's projected output up. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.556 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.68. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 61 games and Al Okhdood's last 31.

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 53% | Draw 30% | Al Okhdood 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.87 | Draw 3.28 | Al Okhdood 6.22. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 40% (last 10 home games) | Al Okhdood 40% (last 10 away games).

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