Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al-Ettifaq versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Friday 31 December 2021 at 13:35 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this season: 2W 2D 2L from 6 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Al-Fayha have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha away from home this season: 1W 3D 4L from 8 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.30 for Al-Fayha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 57% versus Al-Fayha 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 64% | Al-Fayha 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 0.89 xG and Al-Fayha 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.745 / defence 1.145 | Al-Fayha attack 0.664 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.091. Al-Ettifaq's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Al-Ettifaq games / 14 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 35% | Draw 34% | Al-Fayha 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Al-Fayha 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Al-Fayha's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.72 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al-Fayha 62%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 31 Dec 2021, 13:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 35% | Draw 34% | Al-Fayha 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Al-Ettifaq 0.89 / Al-Fayha 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.745 / def 1.145 | Al-Fayha attack 0.664 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Al-Fayha xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 13:35 on Friday 31 December 2021 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 35% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.74) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.66x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
35%
2.89
34%
2.93
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
1.72
0.83
Al-Fayha xG
2.89
35%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
13%
7.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.9 | 14.8 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.83 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 4W 4D 6L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha's form line: 5W 5D 4L from 14 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.43 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.33 PPG from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 0W 2D 4L from 6 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fayha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.93 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Fayha in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 5W 5D 4L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.33 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 on 11 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
3
Draws
3
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Al-Fayha have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 50%, Al-Fayha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ettifaq) and 33% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Fayha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 50% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 33% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 0.89 xG and Al-Fayha 0.83 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.74 / defence 1.15 against Al-Fayha attack 0.66 / defence 1.06, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 35% | Draw 34% | Al-Fayha 31%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 64%, Al-Fayha 21%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.14 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.