Al-Ettifaq 1-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al-Fateh to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 5 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's home record at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Fateh have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Al-Ettifaq.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2023, ended 0–4 with Al-Fateh winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Fateh have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 84% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 42% versus Al-Fateh 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 45% | Al-Fateh 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.94 xG and Al-Fateh 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.242 / defence 1.016 | Al-Fateh attack 1.199 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.432. Data: 38 Al-Ettifaq games / 38 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 43% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 35%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Fateh 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Al-Fateh lead the H2H ledger, but Al-Ettifaq carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.69 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al-Fateh 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 43% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.94 / Al-Fateh 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.242 / def 1.016 | Al-Fateh attack 1.199 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Al-Fateh xG
71%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 5 October 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 2 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 43% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 35% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 3W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 1.24x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
43%
2.32
22%
4.64
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.69
1.75
Al-Fateh xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.41
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
14%
6.96
Win to Nil
8%
13.28
5%
19.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.75 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 15W 9D 14L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh's form line: 17W 6D 15L from 38 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.42 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.79 PPG from 19 outings (10W 4D 5L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 9W 2D 8L from 19 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.79 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 17W 6D 15L in their last 38 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.79 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 19 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
7
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 4-3 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 53%, Al-Fateh 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Al-Ettifaq and 84% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 58% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 84% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fateh defy the odds to beat Al-Ettifaq 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al-Ettifaq 1-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.94 xG and Al-Fateh 1.75 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.24 / defence 1.02 against Al-Fateh attack 1.20 / defence 1.02, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 43% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 35%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al-Fateh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 45%, Al-Fateh 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.42 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.