Al Baten 2-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Baten at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Baten vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Al Baten welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to Al-Batin FC Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 5 May 2022 at 18:50 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Baten stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Baten's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Al-Batin FC Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Al Baten) versus 1.30 (Al-Ahli Jeddah). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Baten, 1 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al Baten in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 40% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Baten 40% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 1.42 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 0.973 / defence 1.161 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.806 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.133. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Al Baten's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Al Baten games / 25 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Baten 45% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 28%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.57. Al Baten hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Baten are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Baten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Baten 40% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 May 2022, 18:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 45% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Al Baten 1.42 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 0.973 / def 1.161 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.806 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Al Baten (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Baten vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Baten vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 18:50 on Thursday 5 May 2022 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Baten 2 - 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Baten vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Baten vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 45% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Baten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al Baten and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Baten vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (1 meetings): Al Baten 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W.
What form are Al Baten and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Baten (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Baten's attack rating (0.97) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al Baten's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Baten Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.77
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Al Baten xG
Total xG
2.48
1.06
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
7%
14.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Al Baten and 1.06 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Baten come into this having played 25 games, going 6W 7D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ahli Jeddah sit at 1.12 PPG from 25 outings (6W 10D 9L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Baten on 1.00 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Baten's home form reads 4W 4D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken 0.83 points per game from 12 outings (2W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Baten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Baten are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.32 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 64%.
Last 25 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Baten and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 6W 7D 12L in their last 25 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 6W 10D 9L in their last 25 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Baten at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al Baten's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Baten at home: 1.33 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Baten
1
Draws
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Baten have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2022, when Al Baten 2-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al Baten and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Baten 33%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al Baten and 33% for Al-Ahli Jeddah.
On the defensive side: Al Baten keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al Baten have failed to score in 42% of games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Baten play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al Baten's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Baten vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al Baten's recent games and 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Baten and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Baten have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Baten and Al-Ahli Jeddah share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Al Baten and Al-Ahli Jeddah drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 1.42 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.06 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 0.97 / defence 1.16 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.81 / defence 1.26, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 45% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 28%, with Al Baten to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 40%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Baten 1.00 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Baten (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.