Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-1 Al-Faisaly FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Al-Faisaly FC to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 August 2021 at 18:55 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.50 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.001. Data: 0 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 0 Al-Faisaly FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% | Draw 26% | Al-Faisaly FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Faisaly FC 4.00. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 13 Aug 2021, 18:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% | Draw 26% | Al-Faisaly FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.50 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Al-Faisaly FC xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC kicked off at 18:55 on Friday 13 August 2021 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 1 Al-Faisaly FC.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 49% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack at 0.85x the league average against Al-Faisaly FC's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Faisaly FC's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.84
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.48
0.98
Al-Faisaly FC xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
6%
18.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.98 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Pre-Season
Al-Faisaly FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
0
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 0, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2022, when Al-Faisaly FC 2-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.50 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.98 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% | Draw 26% | Al-Faisaly FC 25%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.