Zenit 0-0 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zenit vs Spartak Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gazprom Arena plays host to Zenit versus Spartak Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 24 August 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Zenit (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Zenit have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zenit's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Gazprom Arena this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gazprom Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Spartak Moscow have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Spartak Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Spartak Moscow away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Zenit, 2.10 for Spartak Moscow — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Zenit are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Zenit and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Zenit goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Spartak Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 49% versus Spartak Moscow 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 49% | Spartak Moscow 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.51 xG and Spartak Moscow 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.209 / defence 0.678 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.015 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.226. Zenit's defence rating of 0.678 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Zenit games / 35 Spartak Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zenit 52% | Draw 27% | Spartak Moscow 20%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Spartak Moscow 5.00. Zenit hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zenit are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zenit if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zenit 10% | Spartak Moscow 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Gazprom Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 52% | Draw 27% | Spartak Moscow 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Zenit 1.51 / Spartak Moscow 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.209 / def 0.678 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.015 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Zenit (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Spartak Moscow xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zenit vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Zenit vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Gazprom Arena.
What was the final score in Zenit vs Spartak Moscow?
Zenit 0 - 0 Spartak Moscow.
Where is Zenit vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Gazprom Arena.
What competition is Zenit vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Zenit vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 52% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Zenit and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Zenit vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Spartak Moscow?
Record (6 meetings): Zenit 4W | Draws 2 | Spartak Moscow 0W.
What form are Zenit and Spartak Moscow in?
Zenit (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Zenit's attack rating (1.21) and Spartak Moscow's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Spartak Moscow's attack (1.01x) against Zenit's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.64
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Zenit xG
Total xG
2.36
0.84
Spartak Moscow xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
4%
22.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Zenit and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Zenit and 0.84 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zenit come into this having played 35 games, going 21W 7D 7L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Zenit, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Spartak Moscow sit at 1.71 PPG from 35 outings (17W 9D 9L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Zenit against 1.71 for Spartak Moscow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Zenit's home form reads 11W 2D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Spartak Moscow have taken 1.18 points per game from 17 outings (5W 5D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Spartak Moscow's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zenit are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.43 scored and 1.00 conceded. Zenit's scoring rate against Spartak Moscow's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Spartak Moscow in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Early Season
Spartak Moscow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zenit and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 21W 7D 7L in their last 35 games (2.00 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 17W 9D 9L in their last 35 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or Spartak Moscow away?
Zenit's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.06 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Zenit or Spartak Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Spartak Moscow in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zenit won 7-1 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zenit have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Spartak Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Zenit
4
Draws
1
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Spartak Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Zenit have won 5, Spartak Moscow have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Zenit and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Zenit 2-0 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and Spartak Moscow?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zenit see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Spartak Moscow see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zenit 35%, Spartak Moscow 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Zenit) and 41% (Spartak Moscow).
On the defensive side: Zenit keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Spartak Moscow in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zenit play Spartak Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Zenit's recent matches and 41% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zenit vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Zenit's recent games and 41% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Zenit's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit and Spartak Moscow finished level at 0-0 at Gazprom Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.51 xG and Spartak Moscow 0.84 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zenit fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Spartak Moscow landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.21 / defence 0.68 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.01 / defence 0.90, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 52% | Draw 27% | Spartak Moscow 20%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 49%, Spartak Moscow 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zenit 2.00 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zenit (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.