Ural 0-1 Nizhny Novgorod – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ural at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Ural welcome Nizhny Novgorod to Ekaterinburg Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 August 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ural — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ural have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ural's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Ekaterinburg Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nizhny Novgorod stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Nizhny Novgorod have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nizhny Novgorod's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Ural carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ural, 1 for Nizhny Novgorod and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Nizhny Novgorod winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ural in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Nizhny Novgorod in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 37% versus Nizhny Novgorod 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 37% | Nizhny Novgorod 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 1.31 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.802 / defence 1.164 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.819 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.233. Data: 35 Ural games / 35 Nizhny Novgorod games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 37% | Draw 33% | Nizhny Novgorod 30%. Fair-value odds: Ural 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Nizhny Novgorod 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ural as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ural offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Ural 40% | Nizhny Novgorod 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 37% | Draw 33% | Nizhny Novgorod 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Ural 1.31 / Nizhny Novgorod 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.802 / def 1.164 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.819 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Ural (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Nizhny Novgorod xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod kick off?
Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Ural 0 - 1 Nizhny Novgorod.
Where is Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod part of?
Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 37% chance of winning, Nizhny Novgorod a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ural the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ural and Nizhny Novgorod will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Nizhny Novgorod?
Record (2 meetings): Ural 0W | Draws 1 | Nizhny Novgorod 1W.
What form are Ural and Nizhny Novgorod in?
Ural (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ural's attack at 0.80x the league average against Nizhny Novgorod's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nizhny Novgorod's attack versus Ural's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ural Win
37%
2.73
33%
3.00
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Ural xG
Total xG
2.49
1.18
Nizhny Novgorod xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
8%
12.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ural and Nizhny Novgorod expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Ural and 1.18 for Nizhny Novgorod, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ural come into this having played 35 games, going 8W 10D 17L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Ural, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Nizhny Novgorod sit at 1.00 PPG from 35 outings (8W 11D 16L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ural on 0.97 PPG, Nizhny Novgorod on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ural's home form reads 3W 6D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Nizhny Novgorod have taken 1.06 points per game from 17 outings (4W 6D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ural are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Nizhny Novgorod are on 0.94 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Early Season
Nizhny Novgorod
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and Nizhny Novgorod in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 8W 10D 17L in their last 35 games (0.97 PPG), while Nizhny Novgorod have gone 8W 11D 16L in their last 35 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or Nizhny Novgorod away?
Nizhny Novgorod's away record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 0.88 PPG; Nizhny Novgorod away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ural's record when hosting Nizhny Novgorod specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ural
3
Draws
3
Nizhny Novgorod
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Nizhny Novgorod?
From 6 meetings on record, Ural have won 0, Nizhny Novgorod have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ural and Nizhny Novgorod last play each other?
They last met on 2 December 2023, when Nizhny Novgorod 1-0 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Ural and Nizhny Novgorod?
Nizhny Novgorod have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ural see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Nizhny Novgorod see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 35%, Nizhny Novgorod 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Ural) and 53% (Nizhny Novgorod).
On the defensive side: Ural have failed to score in 53% of games; Nizhny Novgorod in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / Nizhny Novgorod away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play Nizhny Novgorod?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Ural's recent matches and 59% of Nizhny Novgorod's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Ural's recent games and 53% of Nizhny Novgorod's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Nizhny Novgorod defy the odds to beat Ural 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nizhny Novgorod beat Ural 0-1 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 1.31 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 1.18 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ural fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.80 / defence 1.16 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 37% | Draw 33% | Nizhny Novgorod 30%, with Ural to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Nizhny Novgorod win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 37%, Nizhny Novgorod 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 51% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ural 0.97 PPG, Nizhny Novgorod 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nizhny Novgorod win broke the near-deadlock. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.