Ural 1-3 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Rostov at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ural vs FC Rostov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Ural welcome FC Rostov to Ekaterinburg Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 April 2023 at 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ural have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ural's home record at Ekaterinburg Arena: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
FC Rostov — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Rostov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Rostov away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Rostov are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Ural, 0 for FC Rostov and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Ural winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ural in-play tendencies (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
FC Rostov in-play tendencies (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ural 43% and FC Rostov 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 45% | FC Rostov 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 1.14 xG and FC Rostov 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.822 / defence 1.042 | FC Rostov attack 1.026 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.370. Data: 53 Ural games / 53 FC Rostov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 28% | Draw 28% | FC Rostov 44%. Fair-value odds: Ural 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | FC Rostov 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Ural dominate the H2H record, yet FC Rostov are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Rostov at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Rostov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ural 50% | FC Rostov 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 28% | Draw 28% | FC Rostov 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Ural 1.14 / FC Rostov 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.822 / def 1.042 | FC Rostov attack 1.026 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.47
FC Rostov xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs FC Rostov kick off?
Ural vs FC Rostov kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs FC Rostov?
Ural 1 - 3 FC Rostov.
Where is Ural vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs FC Rostov part of?
Ural vs FC Rostov is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 28% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ural and FC Rostov will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and FC Rostov?
Record (3 meetings): Ural 2W | Draws 1 | FC Rostov 0W.
What form are Ural and FC Rostov in?
Ural (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. FC Rostov (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ural's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against FC Rostov's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, FC Rostov's attack versus Ural's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
28%
3.52
28%
3.60
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Ural xG
Total xG
2.60
1.47
FC Rostov xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
7%
15.22
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ural and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Ural and 1.47 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Ural have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 15W 13D 25L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Rostov's form line: 23W 15D 15L from 53 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. The sample for FC Rostov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Rostov are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ural.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ural have posted 1.08 PPG from 25 outings (7W 6D 12L).
On the road, FC Rostov have gone 9W 10D 6L from 25 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Ural are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.64 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov in 77%.
Last 53 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 15W 13D 25L in their last 53 games (1.09 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 23W 15D 15L in their last 53 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or FC Rostov away?
FC Rostov's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 1.08 PPG; FC Rostov away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Ural won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ural's record when hosting FC Rostov specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ural
2
Draws
2
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and FC Rostov?
From 6 meetings on record, Ural have won 2, FC Rostov have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ural and FC Rostov last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2024, when Ural 0-1 FC Rostov.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ural see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 40%, FC Rostov 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ural) and 60% (FC Rostov).
On the defensive side: Ural have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play FC Rostov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Ural's games and 80% of FC Rostov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ural vs FC Rostov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ural's recent games and 60% of FC Rostov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ural and FC Rostov tend to score early?
Ural have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, FC Rostov in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Rostov cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ural.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov beat Ural 1-3 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 1.14 xG and FC Rostov 1.47 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Rostov outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.82 / defence 1.04 against FC Rostov attack 1.03 / defence 0.92, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 28% | Draw 28% | FC Rostov 44%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 45%, FC Rostov 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
FC Rostov's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Rostov arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ural (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Rostov (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.