Ural 2-0 Fakel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ural at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ural vs Fakel encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Ural welcome Fakel to Ekaterinburg Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 09:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ural have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ural's home record at Ekaterinburg Arena: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fakel stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fakel have gone 0W 4D 4L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Ural are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ural, 0 for Fakel and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ural in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Fakel in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ural 56% and Fakel 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 69% | Fakel 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 1.72 xG and Fakel 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.834 / defence 1.175 | Fakel attack 0.773 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.273. Fakel bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Ural's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Ural games / 16 Fakel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 49% | Draw 26% | Fakel 24%. Fair-value odds: Ural 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Fakel 4.17. Ural hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ural at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ural offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ural 50% | Fakel 88% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs Fakel | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 09:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 49% | Draw 26% | Fakel 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Ural 1.72 / Fakel 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.834 / def 1.175 | Fakel attack 0.773 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Ural (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Fakel xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs Fakel kick off?
Ural vs Fakel kicked off at 09:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs Fakel?
Ural 2 - 0 Fakel.
Where is Ural vs Fakel being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs Fakel part of?
Ural vs Fakel is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs Fakel?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 49% chance of winning, Fakel a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ural the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs Fakel?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ural and Fakel will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs Fakel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Fakel?
Record (1 meetings): Ural 0W | Draws 1 | Fakel 0W.
What form are Ural and Fakel in?
Ural (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Fakel (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ural's attack rating (0.83) and Fakel's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fakel's attack versus Ural's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ural Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.82
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Ural xG
Total xG
2.88
1.16
Fakel xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
4%
22.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs Fakel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Ural and Fakel expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Ural and 1.16 for Fakel, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs Fakel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ural come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 3D 8L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fakel sit at 0.81 PPG from 16 outings (1W 10D 5L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ural on 1.12 PPG, Fakel on 0.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ural's home form reads 3W 1D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Fakel have taken 0.50 points per game from 8 outings (0W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ural come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ural are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Fakel are on 1.31 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fakel in 81%.
Last 16 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Blended
Fakel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and Fakel in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 5W 3D 8L in their last 16 games (1.12 PPG), while Fakel have gone 1W 10D 5L in their last 16 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or Fakel away?
Ural's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 1.25 PPG; Fakel away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ural and Fakel runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Ural's record when hosting Fakel specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ural
3
Draws
0
Fakel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Fakel?
From 4 meetings on record, Ural have won 1, Fakel have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ural and Fakel last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Fakel 0-0 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Ural and Fakel?
Ural have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ural at 50%, Fakel at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Ural and 62% for Fakel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ural have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / Fakel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play Fakel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ural's games and 88% of Fakel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ural vs Fakel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Ural's matches and 62% of Fakel's.
Do Ural and Fakel tend to score early?
Ural have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Fakel in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ural cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fakel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ural beat Fakel 2-0 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 1.72 xG and Fakel 1.16 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fakel landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against Fakel attack 0.77 / defence 1.22, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 49% | Draw 26% | Fakel 24%, with Ural to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 69%, Fakel 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Fakel's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ural 1.12 PPG, Fakel 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ural win broke the near-deadlock. Ural (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Fakel (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.