Torpedo Moskva 0-1 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Rostov at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Torpedo Moskva vs FC Rostov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht plays host to Torpedo Moskva versus FC Rostov in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Monday 5 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Torpedo Moskva have collected 0.14 PPG across 7 Premier League outings this season: 0W 1D 6L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.57 goals per game and conceding 2.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.57 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Torpedo Moskva have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Torpedo Moskva's home record at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht: 0W 0D 3L from 3 Premier League appearances (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Rostov (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Rostov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Rostov's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, FC Rostov are the stronger side — 1.56 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.14). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Torpedo Moskva register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, FC Rostov in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Torpedo Moskva half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
FC Rostov half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Torpedo Moskva 57% and FC Rostov 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torpedo Moskva 57% | FC Rostov 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torpedo Moskva 1.30 xG and FC Rostov 2.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torpedo Moskva attack 0.757 / defence 1.648 | FC Rostov attack 1.229 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.347. Torpedo Moskva's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Rostov have an above-average attack strength of 1.229 — the away xG of 2.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Torpedo Moskva games / 37 FC Rostov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torpedo Moskva 15% | Draw 18% | FC Rostov 67%. Fair-value odds: Torpedo Moskva 6.67 | Draw 5.56 | FC Rostov 1.49. The model has a clear lean to FC Rostov (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 4.02. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.02 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 2.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Rostov at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Torpedo Moskva 100% | FC Rostov 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torpedo Moskva vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht • Kick-off: Monday 5 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torpedo Moskva 15% | Draw 18% | FC Rostov 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 69% | xG Torpedo Moskva 1.30 / FC Rostov 2.73 • Poisson strength factors: Torpedo Moskva attack 0.757 / def 1.648 | FC Rostov attack 1.229 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Torpedo Moskva xG
Expected Goals
2.73
FC Rostov xG
69%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torpedo Moskva vs FC Rostov kick off?
Torpedo Moskva vs FC Rostov kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 5 September 2022 at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht.
What was the final score in Torpedo Moskva vs FC Rostov?
Torpedo Moskva 0 - 1 FC Rostov.
Where is Torpedo Moskva vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht.
What competition is Torpedo Moskva vs FC Rostov part of?
Torpedo Moskva vs FC Rostov is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Torpedo Moskva vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Torpedo Moskva a 15% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 67% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torpedo Moskva vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Torpedo Moskva and FC Rostov will score (BTTS).
Will Torpedo Moskva vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torpedo Moskva and FC Rostov?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Torpedo Moskva and FC Rostov in?
Torpedo Moskva (all comps): 0W-1D-6L in 7 | 0.14 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 2.57 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. FC Rostov (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Torpedo Moskva's attack at 0.76x the league average against FC Rostov's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Rostov's attack (1.23x) against Torpedo Moskva's defence (1.65x) — and the away total comes out at 2.73.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-3 (7.8%), 1-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
15%
6.69
18%
5.41
67%
1.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.8%
Away win
0 – 2
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Torpedo Moskva xG
Total xG
4.02
2.73
FC Rostov xG
6.69
15%
Home win
5.41
18%
Draw
1.50
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
7%
15.30
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
1%
102.42
18%
5.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.9 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torpedo Moskva vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Torpedo Moskva and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Torpedo Moskva and 2.73 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 4.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Torpedo Moskva vs FC Rostov?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Torpedo Moskva have picked up 0.14 PPG on a 0W 1D 6L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Torpedo Moskva, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Rostov's form line: 3W 4D 0L from 7 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for FC Rostov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Rostov are the form team by 1.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Torpedo Moskva.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Torpedo Moskva have posted 0.00 PPG from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L).
On the road, FC Rostov have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Rostov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Torpedo Moskva are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.71 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torpedo Moskva
Early Season
FC Rostov
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torpedo Moskva and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Torpedo Moskva have gone 0W 1D 6L in their last 7 games (0.14 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 3W 4D 0L in their last 7 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torpedo Moskva at home or FC Rostov away?
FC Rostov's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torpedo Moskva at home: 0.00 PPG; FC Rostov away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Torpedo Moskva
0
Draws
2
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torpedo Moskva and FC Rostov?
From 2 meetings on record, Torpedo Moskva have won 0, FC Rostov have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Torpedo Moskva and FC Rostov last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2023, when FC Rostov 2-1 Torpedo Moskva.
Who has won more matches between Torpedo Moskva and FC Rostov?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Torpedo Moskva are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Torpedo Moskva, 100% for FC Rostov — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Torpedo Moskva and 67% for FC Rostov. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torpedo Moskva home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torpedo Moskva play FC Rostov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Torpedo Moskva's games and 100% of FC Rostov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Torpedo Moskva vs FC Rostov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Torpedo Moskva's matches and 67% of FC Rostov's.
Do Torpedo Moskva and FC Rostov tend to score early?
Torpedo Moskva have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Rostov in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Rostov edge out Torpedo Moskva 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov beat Torpedo Moskva 0-1 at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torpedo Moskva 1.30 xG and FC Rostov 2.73 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Torpedo Moskva fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Rostov landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torpedo Moskva attack 0.76 / defence 1.65 against FC Rostov attack 1.23 / defence 1.07, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torpedo Moskva 15% | Draw 18% | FC Rostov 67%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torpedo Moskva 57%, FC Rostov 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torpedo Moskva's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Rostov's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Rostov arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Torpedo Moskva (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.