Spartak Moscow 1-2 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees FC Krasnodar travel to Otkrytiye Arena to take on Spartak Moscow. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 March 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Spartak Moscow have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spartak Moscow have posted 4W 3D 3L at Otkrytiye Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Spartak Moscow are significantly better at Otkrytiye Arena than their overall form suggests.
FC Krasnodar — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Krasnodar have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Krasnodar are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Spartak Moscow register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC Krasnodar in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Spartak Moscow trading profile (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
FC Krasnodar trading profile (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 58% versus FC Krasnodar 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 42% | FC Krasnodar 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.12 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 0.918 / defence 1.218 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.048 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.045 / away 1.174. Data: 20 Spartak Moscow games / 19 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 27% | Draw 29% | FC Krasnodar 44%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | FC Krasnodar 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Krasnodar as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Spartak Moscow 70% | FC Krasnodar 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Otkrytiye Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 27% | Draw 29% | FC Krasnodar 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Spartak Moscow 1.12 / FC Krasnodar 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 0.918 / def 1.218 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.048 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.045 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.50
FC Krasnodar xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Otkrytiye Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
Spartak Moscow 1 - 2 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Otkrytiye Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 27% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Spartak Moscow and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and FC Krasnodar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spartak Moscow and FC Krasnodar in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Spartak Moscow's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against FC Krasnodar's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, FC Krasnodar's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
27%
3.73
29%
3.46
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
2.62
1.50
FC Krasnodar xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
6%
16.69
14%
6.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.50 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Spartak Moscow have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 7W 5D 7L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar's form line: 9W 5D 5L from 19 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spartak Moscow on 1.37 PPG, FC Krasnodar on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Spartak Moscow have posted 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L).
On the road, FC Krasnodar have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.63 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 7W 5D 7L in their last 19 games (1.37 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 9W 5D 5L in their last 19 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or FC Krasnodar away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Spartak Moscow or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC Krasnodar have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jul 2022, when Spartak Moscow won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting FC Krasnodar specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Spartak Moscow
0
Draws
6
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and FC Krasnodar?
From 10 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 4, FC Krasnodar have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Spartak Moscow 1-2 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Spartak Moscow at 70%, FC Krasnodar at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Spartak Moscow) and 60% (FC Krasnodar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play FC Krasnodar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Spartak Moscow's games and 60% of FC Krasnodar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Spartak Moscow's matches and 60% of FC Krasnodar's.
Do Spartak Moscow and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Krasnodar edge out Spartak Moscow 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat Spartak Moscow 1-2 at Otkrytiye Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.12 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.50 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 0.92 / defence 1.22 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.05 / defence 1.17, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 27% | Draw 29% | FC Krasnodar 44%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 42%, FC Krasnodar 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spartak Moscow 1.37 PPG, FC Krasnodar 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Krasnodar win broke the near-deadlock. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.