Spartak Moscow vs Dinamo Makhachkala – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spartak Moscow vs Dinamo Makhachkala fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Dinamo Makhachkala travel to Lukoil Arena to take on Spartak Moscow. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 April 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spartak Moscow stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Spartak Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Spartak Moscow's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Lukoil Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Dinamo Makhachkala have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Dinamo Makhachkala have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dinamo Makhachkala's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Spartak Moscow at 2.00 PPG versus Dinamo Makhachkala's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Spartak Moscow have won 1, Dinamo Makhachkala 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Spartak Moscow trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Dinamo Makhachkala trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 67% versus Dinamo Makhachkala 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 61% | Dinamo Makhachkala 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 2.02 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.210 / defence 0.824 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.148 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.312. Dinamo Makhachkala bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Spartak Moscow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Spartak Moscow games / 36 Dinamo Makhachkala games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 54% | Draw 25% | Dinamo Makhachkala 22%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Dinamo Makhachkala 4.55. Spartak Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spartak Moscow are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Spartak Moscow 80% | Dinamo Makhachkala 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Dinamo Makhachkala | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Lukoil Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 54% | Draw 25% | Dinamo Makhachkala 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Spartak Moscow 2.02 / Dinamo Makhachkala 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.210 / def 0.824 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.148 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Dinamo Makhachkala kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Dinamo Makhachkala is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 April 2027 at Lukoil Arena.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Dinamo Makhachkala being played?
The match is being played at Lukoil Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Dinamo Makhachkala part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Dinamo Makhachkala is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 54% chance of winning, Dinamo Makhachkala a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Dinamo Makhachkala will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs Dinamo Makhachkala have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Dinamo Makhachkala?
Record (4 meetings): Spartak Moscow 1W | Draws 2 | Dinamo Makhachkala 1W.
What form are Spartak Moscow and Dinamo Makhachkala in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Spartak Moscow's attack rating (1.21) and Dinamo Makhachkala's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dinamo Makhachkala's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
54%
1.86
25%
4.05
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
3.26
1.24
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
13%
7.54
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
3%
35.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Dinamo Makhachkala expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.24 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Spartak Moscow have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 19W 8D 9L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dinamo Makhachkala's form line: 10W 10D 16L from 36 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Spartak Moscow are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dinamo Makhachkala.
Venue Form
On home soil, Spartak Moscow have posted 2.06 PPG from 18 outings (11W 4D 3L).
On the road, Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 3W 5D 10L from 18 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spartak Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Dinamo Makhachkala are on 0.89 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spartak Moscow have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Early Season
Dinamo Makhachkala
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and Dinamo Makhachkala in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 19W 8D 9L in their last 36 games (1.81 PPG), while Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 10W 10D 16L in their last 36 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or Dinamo Makhachkala away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 2.06 PPG; Dinamo Makhachkala away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting Dinamo Makhachkala specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spartak Moscow
2
Draws
1
Dinamo Makhachkala
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Dinamo Makhachkala?
From 4 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 1, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Dinamo Makhachkala last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Dinamo Makhachkala 0-0 Spartak Moscow.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Dinamo Makhachkala are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 67%, Dinamo Makhachkala 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Spartak Moscow) and 44% (Dinamo Makhachkala). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dinamo Makhachkala in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Dinamo Makhachkala away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play Dinamo Makhachkala?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Spartak Moscow's games and 56% of Dinamo Makhachkala's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spartak Moscow vs Dinamo Makhachkala usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Spartak Moscow's matches and 44% of Dinamo Makhachkala's.
Do Spartak Moscow and Dinamo Makhachkala tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Dinamo Makhachkala in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.