Rubin 2-0 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rubin (39%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Rubin face Akhmat.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Akhmat make the trip to Ak Bars Arena to face Rubin in Premier League (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Rubin (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Rubin's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Akhmat's record over their last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Akhmat away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Rubin. A 0.60 PPG lead over Akhmat (1.20 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Rubin have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Akhmat managing 0 and 0 draws.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Mar 2024, ended Rubin 2–1 Akhmat — a Rubin win.
The head-to-head data gives Rubin an edge — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Rubin — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Akhmat — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rubin 48% versus Akhmat 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rubin 40% | Akhmat 45%). Note also that Akhmat surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Rubin recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 1.35 xG and Akhmat 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 0.910 / defence 1.224 | Akhmat attack 0.767 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.223. Akhmat's attack rating of 0.767 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Rubin's defence rating of 1.224 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Akhmat's projected output up. Data: built from Rubin's last 40 games and Akhmat's last 40.
Result probabilities: Rubin 39% | Draw 31% | Akhmat 30%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 2.54 | Draw 3.26 | Akhmat 3.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rubin are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rubin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rubin 70% (last 10 home games) | Akhmat 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, matchday 11 | Venue: Ak Bars Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 39% | Draw 31% | Akhmat 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Rubin 1.35 / Akhmat 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 0.910 / def 1.224 | Akhmat attack 0.767 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Rubin (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Akhmat xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rubin vs Akhmat FAQs
What time does Rubin vs Akhmat kick off?
Rubin vs Akhmat kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Ak Bars Arena.
What was the final score in Rubin vs Akhmat?
Rubin 2 - 0 Akhmat.
Where is Rubin vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Ak Bars Arena.
What competition is Rubin vs Akhmat part of?
Rubin vs Akhmat is a Premier League fixture (matchday 11) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 39% chance of winning, Akhmat a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rubin and Akhmat will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rubin vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rubin's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Akhmat's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Akhmat's attack (0.77x) against Rubin's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Rubin's last 40 games and Akhmat's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rubin Win
39%
2.54
31%
3.26
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Rubin xG
Total xG
2.50
1.15
Akhmat xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
13%
8.00
8%
12.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rubin vs Akhmat Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Rubin and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Rubin and 1.15 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Rubin have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 14W 12D 14L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Akhmat's form line: 10W 11D 19L from 40 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Rubin against 1.02 for Akhmat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rubin have posted 1.25 PPG from their last 20 home games (6W 7D 7L).
On the road, Akhmat have gone 5W 4D 11L from their last 20 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Rubin are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.00 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
Rubin (Home) vs Akhmat (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rubin
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Rubin vs Akhmat Form FAQs
What form are Rubin and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 14W 12D 14L in their last 40 games (1.35 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 10W 11D 19L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rubin at home or Akhmat away?
Rubin's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rubin at home: 1.25 PPG; Akhmat away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Rubin and Akhmat, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 7 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rubin have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Akhmat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Rubin
1
Draws
1
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Rubin vs Akhmat H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Akhmat?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Rubin have won 7, Akhmat have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rubin and Akhmat last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 September 2026: Rubin 1-1 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and Akhmat?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 55%, Akhmat 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Rubin) and 40% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: Rubin have failed to score in 30% of games; Akhmat in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rubin vs Akhmat Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rubin and Akhmat matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Rubin's recent matches and 35% of Akhmat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rubin and Akhmat matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Rubin's recent games and 40% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rubin and Akhmat matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Rubin's recent matches and 60% of Akhmat's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rubin cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Akhmat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat Akhmat 2-0 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.35 xG and Akhmat 1.15 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Akhmat landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.91 / defence 1.22 against Akhmat attack 0.77 / defence 1.12, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 39% | Draw 31% | Akhmat 30%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 40%, Akhmat 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Akhmat's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rubin 1.35 PPG, Akhmat 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rubin win broke the near-deadlock. Rubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.