Lokomotiv 1-3 Khimki – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lokomotiv at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lokomotiv vs Khimki encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lokomotiv host Khimki at RZD Arena in Premier League (matchday 17). Kick-off is Sunday 1 December 2024 at 11:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lokomotiv have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lokomotiv at home: 9W 0D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Lokomotiv are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Khimki stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Khimki's away record over their last 8 away games: 1W 3D 4L (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game.
On current form, Lokomotiv have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Lokomotiv, 1 for Khimki and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2024, ended Lokomotiv 0–2 Khimki — a Khimki win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lokomotiv in-play and half-time data (last 16 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Khimki in-play and half-time data (last 16 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lokomotiv 56% versus Khimki 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokomotiv 62% | Khimki 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokomotiv 2.23 xG and Khimki 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokomotiv attack 1.138 / defence 0.910 | Khimki attack 0.765 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.238. Khimki's defence rating of 1.382 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lokomotiv's projected output up. Khimki's attack rating of 0.765 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Lokomotiv's last 46 games and Khimki's last 16.
Result probabilities: Lokomotiv 66% | Draw 23% | Khimki 11%. Fair-value odds: Lokomotiv 1.51 | Draw 4.40 | Khimki 9.05. The model has a clear lean to Lokomotiv (66%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lokomotiv at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lokomotiv's last 10 home games and Khimki's last 8 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lokomotiv 40% (last 10 home games) | Khimki 50% (last 8 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokomotiv vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, matchday 17 | Venue: RZD Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokomotiv 66% | Draw 23% | Khimki 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Lokomotiv 2.23 / Khimki 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Lokomotiv attack 1.138 / def 0.910 | Khimki attack 0.765 / def 1.382 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Lokomotiv (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Lokomotiv xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Khimki xG
54%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lokomotiv vs Khimki FAQs
What time does Lokomotiv vs Khimki kick off?
Lokomotiv vs Khimki kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at RZD Arena.
What was the final score in Lokomotiv vs Khimki?
Lokomotiv 1 - 3 Khimki.
Where is Lokomotiv vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at RZD Arena.
What competition is Lokomotiv vs Khimki part of?
Lokomotiv vs Khimki is a Premier League fixture (matchday 17) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Lokomotiv vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives Lokomotiv a 66% chance of winning, Khimki a 11% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lokomotiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lokomotiv and Khimki will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lokomotiv vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lokomotiv's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Khimki's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. The same calculation in reverse, Khimki's attack versus Lokomotiv's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lokomotiv's last 46 games and Khimki's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lokomotiv Win
66%
1.51
23%
4.40
11%
9.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Lokomotiv xG
Total xG
3.09
0.86
Khimki xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
9.05
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
11%
9.25
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
1%
83.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lokomotiv vs Khimki Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokomotiv vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Lokomotiv and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Lokomotiv and 0.86 for Khimki, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokomotiv vs Khimki?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lokomotiv's recent record stands at 11W 1D 4L from 16 games, a 2.12 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Khimki, meanwhile, have gone 2W 7D 7L across 16 games — 0.81 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lokomotiv by 1.31 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khimki heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lokomotiv have managed 7W 0D 1L from their last 8 home games — 2.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.12 PPG overall — Lokomotiv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Khimki's away record stands at 1W 3D 4L across their last 8 away games, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lokomotiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lokomotiv are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 1.12 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokomotiv
Blended
Khimki
Blended
Lokomotiv (Home) vs Khimki (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lokomotiv
Blended
Khimki
Blended
❓ Lokomotiv vs Khimki Form FAQs
What form are Lokomotiv and Khimki in coming into this match?
Lokomotiv have gone 11W 1D 4L in their last 16 games (2.12 PPG), while Khimki have gone 2W 7D 7L in their last 16 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lokomotiv at home or Khimki away?
Lokomotiv's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lokomotiv at home: 2.62 PPG; Khimki away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Lokomotiv or Khimki been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lokomotiv have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Khimki in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 1 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Khimki have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Apr 2023, when Lokomotiv won Lokomotiv 5-1 Khimki.
Lokomotiv's record when hosting Khimki specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lokomotiv
1
Draws
2
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Lokomotiv vs Khimki H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lokomotiv and Khimki?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Lokomotiv have won 3, Khimki have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lokomotiv and Khimki last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 December 2024: Lokomotiv 1-3 Khimki.
Who has won more matches between Lokomotiv and Khimki?
Lokomotiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lokomotiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lokomotiv 50%, Khimki 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Lokomotiv and 62% for Khimki. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lokomotiv keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Khimki in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokomotiv home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lokomotiv vs Khimki Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lokomotiv and Khimki matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lokomotiv's recent matches and 50% of Khimki's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lokomotiv and Khimki matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Lokomotiv's matches and 62% of Khimki's.
Do Lokomotiv and Khimki matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Lokomotiv's recent matches and 88% of Khimki's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khimki cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lokomotiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khimki beat Lokomotiv 1-3 at RZD Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokomotiv 2.23 xG and Khimki 0.86 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lokomotiv fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Khimki outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokomotiv attack 1.14 / defence 0.91 against Khimki attack 0.77 / defence 1.38, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lokomotiv 66% | Draw 23% | Khimki 11%, with Lokomotiv to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Khimki win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokomotiv 62%, Khimki 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lokomotiv's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Khimki's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lokomotiv arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Khimki winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lokomotiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khimki (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.