Krylia Sovetov 2-1 Nizhny Novgorod – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Krylia Sovetov take on Nizhny Novgorod.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Solidarnost Arena plays host to Krylia Sovetov versus Nizhny Novgorod in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 30 October 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Krylia Sovetov have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 3W 3D 4L at Solidarnost Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Nizhny Novgorod's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nizhny Novgorod's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Krylia Sovetov 1W, Nizhny Novgorod 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Nizhny Novgorod goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 52% versus Nizhny Novgorod 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 43% | Nizhny Novgorod 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.03 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.703 / defence 0.810 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.867 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.261. Krylia Sovetov's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Krylia Sovetov games / 44 Nizhny Novgorod games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 36% | Draw 36% | Nizhny Novgorod 28%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Nizhny Novgorod 3.57. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Krylia Sovetov 40% | Nizhny Novgorod 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 36% | Draw 36% | Nizhny Novgorod 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.03 / Nizhny Novgorod 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.703 / def 0.810 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.867 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Nizhny Novgorod xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Krylia Sovetov 2 - 1 Nizhny Novgorod.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 36% chance of winning, Nizhny Novgorod a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod?
Record (2 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 1W | Draws 1 | Nizhny Novgorod 0W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.70x the league average against Nizhny Novgorod's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nizhny Novgorod's attack (0.87x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.79
36%
2.79
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
1.91
0.89
Nizhny Novgorod xG
2.79
36%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
10%
9.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.89 for Nizhny Novgorod, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 15W 10D 19L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nizhny Novgorod's form line: 11W 13D 20L from 44 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Nizhny Novgorod is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.05 for Nizhny Novgorod. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1.43 PPG from 21 outings (8W 6D 7L).
On the road, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 6W 8D 7L from 21 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Nizhny Novgorod are on 0.98 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 15W 10D 19L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while Nizhny Novgorod have gone 11W 13D 20L in their last 44 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Nizhny Novgorod away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.43 PPG; Nizhny Novgorod away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nizhny Novgorod won 5-2 on 12 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nizhny Novgorod — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Krylia Sovetov
2
Draws
4
Nizhny Novgorod
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 4, Nizhny Novgorod have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Nizhny Novgorod 3-0 Krylia Sovetov.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Krylia Sovetov see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Nizhny Novgorod see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 43%, Nizhny Novgorod 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Krylia Sovetov) and 48% (Nizhny Novgorod).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 29% of games; Nizhny Novgorod in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Nizhny Novgorod away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Nizhny Novgorod?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 57% of Nizhny Novgorod's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 48% of Nizhny Novgorod's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Krylia Sovetov edge out Nizhny Novgorod 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Nizhny Novgorod 2-1 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.03 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.89 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.70 / defence 0.81 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.87 / defence 0.85, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 36% | Draw 36% | Nizhny Novgorod 28%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 43%, Nizhny Novgorod 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.25 PPG, Nizhny Novgorod 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.