FC Krasnodar 2-1 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Krasnodar at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 15 as FC Krasnodar welcome Spartak Moscow to Stadion FK Krasnodar. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Krasnodar — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Krasnodar's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 2L across 6 games at Stadion FK Krasnodar this term (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Spartak Moscow have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Spartak Moscow have posted 2W 1D 3L from 6 away outings — 1.17 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (FC Krasnodar) versus 1.30 (Spartak Moscow). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
FC Krasnodar in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Spartak Moscow in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Krasnodar 43% versus Spartak Moscow 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Krasnodar 43% | Spartak Moscow 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.46 xG and Spartak Moscow 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 0.894 / defence 1.079 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.746 / defence 1.339. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.076. Spartak Moscow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.339 — this is suppressing FC Krasnodar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 FC Krasnodar games / 14 Spartak Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 51% | Draw 27% | Spartak Moscow 22%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Spartak Moscow 4.55. FC Krasnodar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Krasnodar at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Krasnodar 33% | Spartak Moscow 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 51% | Draw 27% | Spartak Moscow 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG FC Krasnodar 1.46 / Spartak Moscow 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 0.894 / def 1.079 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.746 / def 1.339 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Spartak Moscow xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow?
FC Krasnodar 2 - 1 Spartak Moscow.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 51% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Krasnodar's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Spartak Moscow's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Spartak Moscow's attack versus FC Krasnodar's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.76
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.33
0.86
Spartak Moscow xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
5%
19.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.86 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Krasnodar come into this having played 14 games, going 6W 3D 5L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Spartak Moscow sit at 1.36 PPG from 14 outings (5W 4D 5L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Krasnodar on 1.50 PPG, Spartak Moscow on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Krasnodar's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Spartak Moscow have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.14 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Spartak Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 6W 3D 5L in their last 14 games (1.50 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or Spartak Moscow away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 1.67 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 1.17 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or Spartak Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Spartak Moscow in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Krasnodar have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jul 2022, when Spartak Moscow won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Krasnodar's record when hosting Spartak Moscow specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Krasnodar
0
Draws
4
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 6, Spartak Moscow have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Spartak Moscow 1-2 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Spartak Moscow see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — FC Krasnodar 33% BTTS, Spartak Moscow 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for FC Krasnodar and 17% for Spartak Moscow.
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Spartak Moscow in 33%; FC Krasnodar have failed to score in 33% of games; Spartak Moscow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play Spartak Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 33% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FC Krasnodar's recent games and 17% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Spartak Moscow in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Krasnodar edge out Spartak Moscow 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat Spartak Moscow 2-1 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.46 xG and Spartak Moscow 0.86 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 0.89 / defence 1.08 against Spartak Moscow attack 0.75 / defence 1.34, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 51% | Draw 27% | Spartak Moscow 22%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 43%, Spartak Moscow 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Krasnodar 1.50 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Krasnodar win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.