FC Krasnodar 3-2 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Krasnodar at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ozon Arena plays host to FC Krasnodar versus CSKA Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 7 December 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Krasnodar have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Krasnodar's home record at Ozon Arena: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ozon Arena.
CSKA Moscow (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, CSKA Moscow have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for FC Krasnodar, 2.10 for CSKA Moscow — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: FC Krasnodar 3W, CSKA Moscow 3W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 9 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
FC Krasnodar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Krasnodar 43% versus CSKA Moscow 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 53% | CSKA Moscow 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.63 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 1.352 / defence 0.799 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.944 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.024. FC Krasnodar carry an above-average attack strength of 1.352 — their λ of 1.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Krasnodar's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 FC Krasnodar games / 47 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 56% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 16%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | CSKA Moscow 6.25. The model has a clear lean to FC Krasnodar (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Krasnodar as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Krasnodar 40% | CSKA Moscow 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Ozon Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 56% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG FC Krasnodar 1.63 / CSKA Moscow 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 1.352 / def 0.799 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.944 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
0.77
CSKA Moscow xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Ozon Arena.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow?
FC Krasnodar 3 - 2 CSKA Moscow.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Ozon Arena.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow part of?
FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 56% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow?
Record (9 meetings): FC Krasnodar 3W | Draws 3 | CSKA Moscow 3W.
What form are FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Krasnodar's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against CSKA Moscow's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (0.94x) against FC Krasnodar's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
56%
1.77
27%
3.69
16%
6.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.40
0.77
CSKA Moscow xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
6.11
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
3%
31.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.77 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, FC Krasnodar have picked up 2.21 PPG on a 31W 11D 5L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow's form line: 28W 11D 8L from 47 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.21 PPG for FC Krasnodar against 2.02 for CSKA Moscow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Krasnodar have posted 2.43 PPG from 23 outings (18W 2D 3L).
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 12W 7D 4L from 23 away games — 1.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.60 scored and 0.74 conceded. FC Krasnodar's scoring rate against CSKA Moscow's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games; CSKA Moscow in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 31W 11D 5L in their last 47 games (2.21 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 28W 11D 8L in their last 47 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or CSKA Moscow away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 2.43 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.87 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-1 on 10 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Krasnodar have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Krasnodar
3
Draws
3
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 4, CSKA Moscow have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when FC Krasnodar 3-2 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 39%, CSKA Moscow 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (FC Krasnodar) and 44% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; CSKA Moscow in 39%; CSKA Moscow in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 48% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of FC Krasnodar's recent games and 44% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Krasnodar edge out CSKA Moscow 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat CSKA Moscow 3-2 at Ozon Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.63 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.77 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Krasnodar beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. CSKA Moscow outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.35 / defence 0.80 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.94 / defence 0.89, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 56% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 16%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 53%, CSKA Moscow 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Krasnodar 2.21 PPG, CSKA Moscow 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Krasnodar win broke the near-deadlock. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.