Khimki 0-3 Ural – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khimki at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khimki vs Ural fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Khimki plays host to Khimki versus Ural in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Khimki (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Khimki's home record at Arena Khimki: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ural have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Ural's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Khimki against 0.80 for Ural. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Khimki lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Ural winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Khimki half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Ural half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khimki 52% versus Ural 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khimki 57% | Ural 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 1.15 xG and Ural 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.781 / defence 1.188 | Ural attack 0.673 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.348. Khimki's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Khimki games / 58 Ural games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khimki 36% | Draw 31% | Ural 33%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Ural 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Khimki as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khimki if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Khimki 30% | Ural 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs Ural | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 36% | Draw 31% | Ural 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Khimki 1.15 / Ural 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.781 / def 1.188 | Ural attack 0.673 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Khimki (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Ural xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs Ural kick off?
Khimki vs Ural kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs Ural?
Khimki 0 - 3 Ural.
Where is Khimki vs Ural being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs Ural part of?
Khimki vs Ural is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs Ural?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 36% chance of winning, Ural a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Khimki the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs Ural?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Khimki and Ural will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs Ural have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Ural?
Record (3 meetings): Khimki 1W | Draws 1 | Ural 1W.
What form are Khimki and Ural in?
Khimki (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Ural (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Khimki's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Ural's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Ural's attack (0.67x) against Khimki's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khimki Win
36%
2.74
31%
3.24
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Khimki xG
Total xG
2.23
1.08
Ural xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
10%
9.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.6 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs Ural?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Khimki and Ural expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Khimki and 1.08 for Ural, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs Ural?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Khimki have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 11W 17D 30L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Ural's form line: 16W 15D 27L from 58 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Khimki against 1.09 for Ural. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Khimki have posted 1.24 PPG from 29 outings (8W 12D 9L).
On the road, Ural have gone 8W 8D 13L from 29 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Khimki are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Ural are on 0.97 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Current Season
Ural
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and Ural in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 11W 17D 30L in their last 58 games (0.86 PPG), while Ural have gone 16W 15D 27L in their last 58 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khimki at home or Ural away?
Khimki's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khimki at home: 1.24 PPG; Ural away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Ural go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ural won 0-3 on 27 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khimki have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ural — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Khimki
1
Draws
2
Ural
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Ural?
From 4 meetings on record, Khimki have won 1, Ural have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and Ural last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2023, when Khimki 0-3 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and Ural?
Ural have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khimki 48%, Ural 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Khimki) and 48% (Ural).
On the defensive side: Khimki keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Khimki have failed to score in 38% of games; Ural in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / Ural away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play Ural?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Khimki's recent matches and 45% of Ural's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khimki vs Ural usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Khimki's recent games and 48% of Ural's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and Ural tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Ural in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ural run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Khimki.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ural beat Khimki 0-3 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 1.15 xG and Ural 1.08 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Khimki fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Ural outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.78 / defence 1.19 against Ural attack 0.67 / defence 0.96, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 36% | Draw 31% | Ural 33%, with Khimki to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Ural win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 57%, Ural 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khimki's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ural's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khimki 0.86 PPG, Ural 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ural win broke the near-deadlock. Khimki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ural (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.