Khimki 3-0 Ska-khabarovsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khimki at 45%, yet in-form Ska-khabarovsk provide a compelling counter-argument — this Khimki vs Ska-khabarovsk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Relegation Round as Khimki welcome Ska-khabarovsk to Arena Khimki. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 May 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khimki stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Khimki at Arena Khimki this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ska-khabarovsk — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Premier League fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Ska-khabarovsk have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ska-khabarovsk are 1.30 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Khimki, 1 for Ska-khabarovsk and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Ska-khabarovsk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 1.52 xG and Ska-khabarovsk 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 1.175 / defence 1.152 | Ska-khabarovsk attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.125 / away 1.216. Data: 30 Khimki games / 0 Ska-khabarovsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khimki 45% | Draw 25% | Ska-khabarovsk 30%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Ska-khabarovsk 3.33. Khimki hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khimki at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ska-khabarovsk (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khimki offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs Ska-khabarovsk | Competition: Premier League, Relegation Round | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Saturday 28 May 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 45% | Draw 25% | Ska-khabarovsk 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Khimki 1.52 / Ska-khabarovsk 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 1.175 / def 1.152 | Ska-khabarovsk attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.125 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Khimki (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Ska-khabarovsk xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs Ska-khabarovsk kick off?
Khimki vs Ska-khabarovsk kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 May 2022 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs Ska-khabarovsk?
Khimki 3 - 0 Ska-khabarovsk.
Where is Khimki vs Ska-khabarovsk being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs Ska-khabarovsk part of?
Khimki vs Ska-khabarovsk is a Relegation Round fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs Ska-khabarovsk?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 45% chance of winning, Ska-khabarovsk a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Khimki the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs Ska-khabarovsk?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Khimki and Ska-khabarovsk will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs Ska-khabarovsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Ska-khabarovsk?
Record (1 meetings): Khimki 0W | Draws 0 | Ska-khabarovsk 1W.
What form are Khimki and Ska-khabarovsk in?
Khimki (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Ska-khabarovsk (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Khimki's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Ska-khabarovsk's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Ska-khabarovsk's attack versus Khimki's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khimki Win
45%
2.23
25%
3.94
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Khimki xG
Total xG
2.71
1.19
Ska-khabarovsk xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
7%
15.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs Ska-khabarovsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Khimki and Ska-khabarovsk expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Khimki and 1.19 for Ska-khabarovsk, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs Ska-khabarovsk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Khimki have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Khimki, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ska-khabarovsk's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Ska-khabarovsk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Ska-khabarovsk are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khimki.
The Goals Picture
Khimki are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Ska-khabarovsk are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Khimki have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Ska-khabarovsk in 0%.
Defensively: Ska-khabarovsk in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Early Season
Ska-khabarovsk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and Ska-khabarovsk in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Ska-khabarovsk have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Khimki or Ska-khabarovsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khimki have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Ska-khabarovsk in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khimki and Ska-khabarovsk runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Khimki
0
Draws
1
Ska-khabarovsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Ska-khabarovsk?
From 2 meetings on record, Khimki have won 1, Ska-khabarovsk have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and Ska-khabarovsk last play each other?
They last met on 28 May 2022, when Khimki 3-0 Ska-khabarovsk.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / Ska-khabarovsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play Ska-khabarovsk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Khimki's recent matches and 0% of Ska-khabarovsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khimki vs Ska-khabarovsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Khimki's recent games and 0% of Ska-khabarovsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and Ska-khabarovsk tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ska-khabarovsk in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Khimki run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ska-khabarovsk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khimki beat Ska-khabarovsk 3-0 at Arena Khimki, Relegation Round, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 1.52 xG and Ska-khabarovsk 1.19 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Khimki beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ska-khabarovsk landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 1.18 / defence 1.15 against Ska-khabarovsk attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 45% | Draw 25% | Ska-khabarovsk 30%, with Khimki to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 0%, Ska-khabarovsk 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Ska-khabarovsk arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Khimki winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Khimki scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ska-khabarovsk managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.