Khimki 0-0 Lokomotiv – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lokomotiv at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khimki vs Lokomotiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Lokomotiv travel to Arena Khimki to take on Khimki. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 September 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Khimki — All Games: 1W 3D 4L from 8 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.75 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Khimki, Khimki have gone 0W 3D 1L this season (4 games, 0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lokomotiv stand at 4W 4D 0L from 8 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.75. Defensively, 0.75 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lokomotiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lokomotiv's away record: 1W 3D 0L from 4 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lokomotiv are 1.25 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.75), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Khimki in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Lokomotiv in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khimki 75% and Lokomotiv 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khimki 50% | Lokomotiv 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 0.93 xG and Lokomotiv 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.855 / defence 1.147 | Lokomotiv attack 0.741 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.280. Data: 8 Khimki games / 8 Lokomotiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khimki 30% | Draw 32% | Lokomotiv 38%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Lokomotiv 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 41% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lokomotiv at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lokomotiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. This conflicts with form data: Khimki 100% | Lokomotiv 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs Lokomotiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 30% | Draw 32% | Lokomotiv 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Khimki 0.93 / Lokomotiv 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.855 / def 1.147 | Lokomotiv attack 0.741 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Lokomotiv (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Lokomotiv xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs Lokomotiv kick off?
Khimki vs Lokomotiv kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs Lokomotiv?
Khimki 0 - 0 Lokomotiv.
Where is Khimki vs Lokomotiv being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs Lokomotiv part of?
Khimki vs Lokomotiv is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs Lokomotiv?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 30% chance of winning, Lokomotiv a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lokomotiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs Lokomotiv?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Khimki and Lokomotiv will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs Lokomotiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Lokomotiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khimki and Lokomotiv in?
Khimki (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.88 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Lokomotiv (all comps): 4W-4D-0L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.75 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Khimki's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Lokomotiv's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Lokomotiv's attack versus Khimki's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lokomotiv Win
30%
3.36
32%
3.10
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Khimki xG
Total xG
2.02
1.09
Lokomotiv xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 14.4 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs Lokomotiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Khimki and Lokomotiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Khimki and 1.09 for Lokomotiv, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs Lokomotiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Khimki have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 1W 3D 4L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lokomotiv's form line: 4W 4D 0L from 8 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Lokomotiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lokomotiv are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khimki.
Venue Form
On home soil, Khimki have posted 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (0W 3D 1L).
On the road, Lokomotiv have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lokomotiv's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lokomotiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khimki are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Lokomotiv are on 1.50 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khimki have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Lokomotiv in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Blended
Lokomotiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and Lokomotiv in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 games (0.75 PPG), while Lokomotiv have gone 4W 4D 0L in their last 8 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khimki at home or Lokomotiv away?
Lokomotiv's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khimki at home: 0.75 PPG; Lokomotiv away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Khimki have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Lokomotiv won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khimki's record when hosting Lokomotiv specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Khimki
1
Draws
3
Lokomotiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Lokomotiv?
From 6 meetings on record, Khimki have won 2, Lokomotiv have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and Lokomotiv last play each other?
They last met on 1 December 2024, when Lokomotiv 1-3 Khimki.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and Lokomotiv?
Lokomotiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Lokomotiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Khimki at 100%, Lokomotiv at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Khimki and 25% for Lokomotiv.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / Lokomotiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play Lokomotiv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Khimki's games and 75% of Lokomotiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khimki vs Lokomotiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Khimki's recent games and 25% of Lokomotiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and Lokomotiv tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lokomotiv in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Khimki's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 9, as Khimki and Lokomotiv drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 0.93 xG and Lokomotiv 1.09 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Khimki fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Lokomotiv landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Lokomotiv attack 0.74 / defence 0.98, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 30% | Draw 32% | Lokomotiv 38%, with Lokomotiv to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 50%, Lokomotiv 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khimki's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Lokomotiv's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lokomotiv arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Khimki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Lokomotiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.