Dynamo 0-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dynamo host Krylia Sovetov at VTB Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dynamo stand at 6W 1D 2L from 9 Premier League matches — 2.11 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.56 goals per game, with 0.89 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo at VTB Arena this season: 2W 1D 1L from 4 home games — 1.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Krylia Sovetov have recorded 3W 1D 5L from 9 outings — 1.11 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 1.44 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Dynamo are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.11 vs 1.11). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Dynamo in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Krylia Sovetov in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dynamo 56% and Krylia Sovetov 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo 44% | Krylia Sovetov 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo 1.48 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo attack 1.089 / defence 1.086 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.782 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.181. Krylia Sovetov bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Dynamo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Dynamo games / 9 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo 48% | Draw 27% | Krylia Sovetov 25%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Krylia Sovetov 4.00. Dynamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Dynamo 75% | Krylia Sovetov 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: VTB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo 48% | Draw 27% | Krylia Sovetov 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Dynamo 1.48 / Krylia Sovetov 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo attack 1.089 / def 1.086 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.782 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Dynamo xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Krylia Sovetov xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at VTB Arena.
What was the final score in Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov?
Dynamo 0 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at VTB Arena.
What competition is Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo a 48% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Dynamo and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo and Krylia Sovetov?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dynamo and Krylia Sovetov in?
Dynamo (all comps): 6W-1D-2L in 9 | 2.11 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 0.89 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-1D-5L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.44 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dynamo's attack at 1.09x the league average against Krylia Sovetov's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus Dynamo's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.70
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Dynamo xG
Total xG
2.48
1.00
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
6%
17.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Dynamo and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Dynamo and 1.00 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Dynamo have picked up 2.11 PPG on a 6W 1D 2L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dynamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Krylia Sovetov's form line: 3W 1D 5L from 9 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dynamo are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Krylia Sovetov.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dynamo have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dynamo are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.22 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov in 67%.
Defensively: Dynamo have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Dynamo have gone 6W 1D 2L in their last 9 games (2.11 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Dynamo's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo at home: 1.75 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Dynamo or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2026, when Dynamo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dynamo's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Dynamo
2
Draws
1
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo and Krylia Sovetov?
From 10 meetings on record, Dynamo have won 7, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Dynamo 0-0 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo and Krylia Sovetov?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Dynamo at 75%, Krylia Sovetov at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dynamo) and 50% (Krylia Sovetov).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Dynamo's games and 75% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dynamo's recent games and 50% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Dynamo have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Krylia Sovetov defy the odds to beat Dynamo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Dynamo 0-1 at VTB Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo 1.48 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.00 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dynamo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo attack 1.09 / defence 1.09 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.78 / defence 1.23, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo 48% | Draw 27% | Krylia Sovetov 25%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Krylia Sovetov win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo 44%, Krylia Sovetov 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Krylia Sovetov winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dynamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.