Dynamo 5-1 Arsenal Tula – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo vs Arsenal Tula encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Arsenal Tula travel to VTB Arena to take on Dynamo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Dynamo have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo's home record at VTB Arena: 4W 1D 2L from 7 Premier League appearances (1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arsenal Tula stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal Tula, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal Tula's away record: 1W 0D 5L from 6 road trips in Premier League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Dynamo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Dynamo trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Arsenal Tula trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dynamo 57% and Arsenal Tula 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo 50% | Arsenal Tula 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo 2.03 xG and Arsenal Tula 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo attack 1.019 / defence 1.020 | Arsenal Tula attack 0.808 / defence 1.659. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.082. Arsenal Tula bring a strong defensive rating of 1.659 — this is suppressing Dynamo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Dynamo games / 14 Arsenal Tula games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo 64% | Draw 21% | Arsenal Tula 15%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Arsenal Tula 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dynamo at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dynamo 57% | Arsenal Tula 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo vs Arsenal Tula | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: VTB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo 64% | Draw 21% | Arsenal Tula 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 51% | xG Dynamo 2.03 / Arsenal Tula 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo attack 1.019 / def 1.020 | Arsenal Tula attack 0.808 / def 1.659 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Dynamo xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Arsenal Tula xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo vs Arsenal Tula kick off?
Dynamo vs Arsenal Tula kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at VTB Arena.
What was the final score in Dynamo vs Arsenal Tula?
Dynamo 5 - 1 Arsenal Tula.
Where is Dynamo vs Arsenal Tula being played?
The match is being played at VTB Arena.
What competition is Dynamo vs Arsenal Tula part of?
Dynamo vs Arsenal Tula is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo vs Arsenal Tula?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo a 64% chance of winning, Arsenal Tula a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo vs Arsenal Tula?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Dynamo and Arsenal Tula will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo vs Arsenal Tula have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo and Arsenal Tula?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dynamo and Arsenal Tula in?
Dynamo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Arsenal Tula (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dynamo's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Arsenal Tula's defensive record (1.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Arsenal Tula's attack versus Dynamo's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.81
15%
6.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Dynamo xG
Total xG
2.92
0.89
Arsenal Tula xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
6.47
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
13%
7.64
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
2%
49.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo vs Arsenal Tula?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Dynamo and Arsenal Tula expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Dynamo and 0.89 for Arsenal Tula, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo vs Arsenal Tula?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dynamo come into this having played 14 games, going 8W 2D 4L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Dynamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Arsenal Tula sit at 0.93 PPG from 14 outings (3W 4D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Arsenal Tula is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Arsenal Tula — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dynamo's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Arsenal Tula have taken 0.50 points per game from 6 outings (1W 0D 5L). That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arsenal Tula's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dynamo are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Arsenal Tula are on 1.07 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arsenal Tula in 64%.
Defensively: Dynamo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo
Blended
Arsenal Tula
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo and Arsenal Tula in coming into this match?
Dynamo have gone 8W 2D 4L in their last 14 games (1.86 PPG), while Arsenal Tula have gone 3W 4D 7L in their last 14 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo at home or Arsenal Tula away?
Dynamo's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo at home: 1.67 PPG; Arsenal Tula away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Dynamo or Arsenal Tula been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Arsenal Tula in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dynamo and Arsenal Tula runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Dynamo
0
Draws
0
Arsenal Tula
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo and Arsenal Tula?
From 2 meetings on record, Dynamo have won 2, Arsenal Tula have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo and Arsenal Tula last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Arsenal Tula 1-4 Dynamo.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo and Arsenal Tula?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Arsenal Tula are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo 50%, Arsenal Tula 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Dynamo) and 83% (Arsenal Tula). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dynamo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Arsenal Tula in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo home games / Arsenal Tula away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo play Arsenal Tula?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Dynamo's games and 67% of Arsenal Tula's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dynamo vs Arsenal Tula usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Dynamo's matches and 83% of Arsenal Tula's.
Do Dynamo and Arsenal Tula tend to score early?
Dynamo have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Arsenal Tula in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dynamo run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Arsenal Tula.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo beat Arsenal Tula 5-1 at VTB Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo 2.03 xG and Arsenal Tula 0.89 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Dynamo beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Arsenal Tula attack 0.81 / defence 1.66, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo 64% | Draw 21% | Arsenal Tula 15%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo 50%, Arsenal Tula 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Arsenal Tula's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. Dynamo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Arsenal Tula (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.