Dinamo Makhachkala 1-1 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spartak Moscow at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Spartak Moscow travel to Anzhi Arena to take on Dinamo Makhachkala. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dinamo Makhachkala stand at 2W 2D 3L from 7 Premier League matches — 1.14 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.43 goals per game and conceding 0.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 14% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Dinamo Makhachkala have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Spartak Moscow — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Spartak Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Spartak Moscow away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Spartak Moscow — 0.96 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.14). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Dinamo Makhachkala's 14% rate and Spartak Moscow's 30% (using overall form) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Profile
Dinamo Makhachkala in-play tendencies (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Spartak Moscow in-play tendencies (7 games): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Dinamo Makhachkala 14% | Spartak Moscow 14%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dinamo Makhachkala 0% | Spartak Moscow 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dinamo Makhachkala 0.77 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.712 / defence 0.995 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.899 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.244. Dinamo Makhachkala's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Spartak Moscow's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 7 Dinamo Makhachkala games / 37 Spartak Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 25% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 43%. Fair-value odds: Dinamo Makhachkala 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Spartak Moscow 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Dinamo Makhachkala 14% | Spartak Moscow 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Anzhi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 25% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Dinamo Makhachkala 0.77 / Spartak Moscow 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.712 / def 0.995 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.899 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Spartak Moscow xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Anzhi Arena.
What was the final score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow?
Dinamo Makhachkala 1 - 1 Spartak Moscow.
Where is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Anzhi Arena.
What competition is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 25% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow in?
Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 0.43 / GA 0.86 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dinamo Makhachkala's attack at 0.71x the league average against Spartak Moscow's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spartak Moscow's attack versus Dinamo Makhachkala's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
25%
3.95
31%
3.19
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Total xG
1.89
1.11
Spartak Moscow xG
3.95
25%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
8%
12.03
20%
4.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 16.9 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.11 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dinamo Makhachkala's recent record stands at 2W 2D 3L from 7 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Spartak Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 1L across 7 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Spartak Moscow by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dinamo Makhachkala heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Dinamo Makhachkala are averaging 0.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.43 scored and 0.43 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Dinamo Makhachkala have seen both teams score in 14% of their recent games; Spartak Moscow in 14%.
Defensively: Dinamo Makhachkala have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Spartak Moscow in 71% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dinamo Makhachkala
Early Season
Spartak Moscow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 (2.00 PPG).
Have Dinamo Makhachkala or Spartak Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dinamo Makhachkala have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Spartak Moscow in 71%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dinamo Makhachkala's record when hosting Spartak Moscow specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dinamo Makhachkala
2
Draws
1
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow?
From 4 meetings on record, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 1, Spartak Moscow have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Dinamo Makhachkala 0-0 Spartak Moscow.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dinamo Makhachkala see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Spartak Moscow tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dinamo Makhachkala 14% BTTS, Spartak Moscow 14%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Dinamo Makhachkala and 43% for Spartak Moscow.
On the defensive side: Dinamo Makhachkala keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Spartak Moscow in 71%; Dinamo Makhachkala have failed to score in 57% of games; Spartak Moscow in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dinamo Makhachkala home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dinamo Makhachkala play Spartak Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent matches and 14% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent games and 43% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow tend to score early?
Dinamo Makhachkala have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Spartak Moscow in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 8, as Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 0.77 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.11 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.71 / defence 0.99 against Spartak Moscow attack 0.90 / defence 0.80, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 25% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 43%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 21% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 0%, Spartak Moscow 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 14%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.