Baltika 0-2 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baltika at 43%, yet in-form Spartak Moscow provide a compelling counter-argument — this Baltika vs Spartak Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rostec Arena plays host to Baltika versus Spartak Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 16:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Baltika have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baltika at Rostec Arena this season: 3W 2D 2L from 7 home games — 1.57 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.57 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Baltika are significantly better at Rostec Arena than their overall form suggests.
Spartak Moscow (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spartak Moscow away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Spartak Moscow are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Baltika, 1 for Spartak Moscow and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2023, ended 1–2 with Spartak Moscow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Baltika — key trading statistics (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Spartak Moscow — key trading statistics (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 40% versus Spartak Moscow 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baltika 40% | Spartak Moscow 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.44 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.809 / defence 1.113 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.912 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.115. Data: 15 Baltika games / 45 Spartak Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baltika 43% | Draw 29% | Spartak Moscow 28%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Spartak Moscow 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baltika are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Spartak Moscow (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baltika if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Baltika 43% | Spartak Moscow 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 43% | Draw 29% | Spartak Moscow 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Baltika 1.44 / Spartak Moscow 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.809 / def 1.113 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.912 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Baltika (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Spartak Moscow xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baltika vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Baltika vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 16:45 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Spartak Moscow?
Baltika 0 - 2 Spartak Moscow.
Where is Baltika vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Baltika vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 43% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Baltika the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Baltika and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Baltika vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Spartak Moscow?
Record (1 meetings): Baltika 0W | Draws 0 | Spartak Moscow 1W.
What form are Baltika and Spartak Moscow in?
Baltika (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Baltika's attack at 0.81x the league average against Spartak Moscow's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Spartak Moscow's attack (0.91x) against Baltika's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baltika Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.49
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.58
1.13
Spartak Moscow xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
7%
14.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Baltika and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Baltika and 1.13 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baltika's recent record stands at 3W 3D 9L from 15 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Baltika is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spartak Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 5L across 15 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Spartak Moscow by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Baltika heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Baltika have managed 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.80 PPG overall — Baltika are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Spartak Moscow's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Spartak Moscow's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Baltika are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.40 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
Spartak Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baltika and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 3W 3D 9L in their last 15 games (0.80 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 7W 3D 5L in their last 15 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Spartak Moscow away?
Baltika's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 1.33 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 29 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Baltika go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baltika won 0-3 on 26 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baltika have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Spartak Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Baltika
0
Draws
2
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Spartak Moscow?
From 4 meetings on record, Baltika have won 2, Spartak Moscow have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2025, when Baltika 1-0 Spartak Moscow.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 33%, Spartak Moscow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Baltika) and 50% (Spartak Moscow).
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Baltika have failed to score in 33% of games; Spartak Moscow in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baltika play Spartak Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Baltika's recent matches and 50% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baltika vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Baltika's recent games and 50% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Spartak Moscow tend to score early?
Baltika have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Spartak Moscow in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spartak Moscow cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Baltika.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat Baltika 0-2 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.44 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.13 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Baltika fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Spartak Moscow outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.81 / defence 1.11 against Spartak Moscow attack 0.91 / defence 1.20, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 43% | Draw 29% | Spartak Moscow 28%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Spartak Moscow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 40%, Spartak Moscow 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Baltika (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.