SC Braga 3-1 Tondela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as SC Braga take on Tondela.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 6 as SC Braga welcome Tondela to Estádio Municipal de Braga. Kick-off is set for Monday 20 September 2021 at 21:15 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Braga — All Games: 2W 2D 1L from 5 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. SC Braga have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Tondela have recorded 1W 0D 4L from 5 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Tondela have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Braga carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
SC Braga in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Tondela in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Braga 40% versus Tondela 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Braga 40% | Tondela 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Braga 1.08 xG and Tondela 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Braga attack 0.802 / defence 1.114 | Tondela attack 0.840 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.035 / away 1.124. Tondela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing SC Braga's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 SC Braga games / 5 Tondela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Braga 32% | Draw 38% | Tondela 30%. Fair-value odds: SC Braga 3.12 | Draw 2.63 | Tondela 3.33. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SC Braga 40% | Tondela 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Braga vs Tondela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga • Kick-off: Monday 20 Sep 2021, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Braga 32% | Draw 38% | Tondela 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 47% | xG SC Braga 1.08 / Tondela 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: SC Braga attack 0.802 / def 1.114 | Tondela attack 0.840 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.035 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
SC Braga xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Tondela xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Braga vs Tondela kick off?
SC Braga vs Tondela kicked off at 21:15 on Monday 20 September 2021 at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What was the final score in SC Braga vs Tondela?
SC Braga 3 - 1 Tondela.
Where is SC Braga vs Tondela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What competition is SC Braga vs Tondela part of?
SC Braga vs Tondela is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win SC Braga vs Tondela?
Our statistical model gives SC Braga a 32% chance of winning, Tondela a 30% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SC Braga vs Tondela?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both SC Braga and Tondela will score (BTTS).
Will SC Braga vs Tondela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Tondela?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Braga and Tondela in?
SC Braga (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Tondela (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Braga's attack at 0.80x the league average against Tondela's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tondela's attack versus SC Braga's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.14
38%
2.65
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
SC Braga xG
Total xG
2.13
1.05
Tondela xG
3.14
32%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
11%
8.98
10%
9.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Braga vs Tondela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are SC Braga and Tondela expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for SC Braga and 1.05 for Tondela, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Braga vs Tondela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Braga come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 2D 1L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for SC Braga, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Tondela sit at 0.60 PPG from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Tondela, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Braga carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Tondela — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
SC Braga are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Tondela are on 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tondela in 60%.
Defensively: SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Braga
Early Season
Tondela
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Braga and Tondela in coming into this match?
SC Braga have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Tondela have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
Have SC Braga or Tondela been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Tondela in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Braga and Tondela runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SC Braga have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when SC Braga won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Braga's record when hosting Tondela specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
SC Braga
0
Draws
0
Tondela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Tondela?
From 4 meetings on record, SC Braga have won 4, Tondela have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Braga and Tondela last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Tondela 0-1 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between SC Braga and Tondela?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Braga see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Tondela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Braga 40%, Tondela 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for SC Braga and 100% for Tondela. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Braga keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; SC Braga have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Braga home games / Tondela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Braga play Tondela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of SC Braga's recent matches and 60% of Tondela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Braga vs Tondela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of SC Braga's matches and 100% of Tondela's.
Do SC Braga and Tondela tend to score early?
SC Braga have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Tondela in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Braga cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Tondela.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Tondela 3-1 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 6, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.08 xG and Tondela 1.05 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SC Braga beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 0.80 / defence 1.11 against Tondela attack 0.84 / defence 1.30, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Braga 32% | Draw 38% | Tondela 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual SC Braga win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 40%, Tondela 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Braga's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Tondela's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SC Braga scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Tondela shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.