Santa Clara 0-1 Vizela – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Vizela at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santa Clara vs Vizela encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 27 as Santa Clara welcome Vizela to Estádio de São Miguel. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 April 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Santa Clara — All Games: 0W 1D 9L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Estádio de São Miguel this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Santa Clara are significantly better at Estádio de São Miguel than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vizela stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Vizela have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Vizela — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Santa Clara, 0 for Vizela and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Santa Clara winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Vizela in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 52% versus Vizela 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 53% | Vizela 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 0.92 xG and Vizela 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.803 / defence 1.597 | Vizela attack 1.132 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.018. Data: 60 Santa Clara games / 60 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 19% | Draw 23% | Vizela 59%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Vizela 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Vizela (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Santa Clara dominate the H2H record, yet Vizela are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vizela at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Santa Clara 70% | Vizela 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 19% | Draw 23% | Vizela 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Santa Clara 0.92 / Vizela 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.803 / def 1.597 | Vizela attack 1.132 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Vizela (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Vizela xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Vizela kick off?
Santa Clara vs Vizela kicked off at 15:30 on Friday 7 April 2023 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Vizela?
Santa Clara 0 - 1 Vizela.
Where is Santa Clara vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Vizela part of?
Santa Clara vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 19% chance of winning, Vizela a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Santa Clara and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Vizela?
Record (3 meetings): Santa Clara 2W | Draws 1 | Vizela 0W.
What form are Santa Clara and Vizela in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Vizela (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Santa Clara's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Vizela's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Vizela's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
19%
5.39
23%
4.44
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.77
1.84
Vizela xG
5.39
19%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
16%
6.30
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
3%
34.00
23%
4.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.6 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.84 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Vizela?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Santa Clara come into this having played 60 games, going 12W 19D 29L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vizela sit at 1.13 PPG from 60 outings (17W 17D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santa Clara on 0.92 PPG, Vizela on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Santa Clara's home form reads 10W 10D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Santa Clara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Vizela have taken 1.07 points per game from 30 outings (8W 8D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Santa Clara are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 1.12 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Blended
Vizela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Vizela in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 12W 19D 29L in their last 60 games (0.92 PPG), while Vizela have gone 17W 17D 26L in their last 60 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Vizela away?
Santa Clara's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 1.33 PPG; Vizela away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Santa Clara's record when hosting Vizela specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Santa Clara
1
Draws
1
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Vizela?
From 4 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 2, Vizela have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2023, when Santa Clara 0-1 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Vizela?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 60%, Vizela 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Santa Clara) and 57% (Vizela). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Santa Clara have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Vizela?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Santa Clara's games and 60% of Vizela's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Santa Clara vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Santa Clara's matches and 57% of Vizela's.
Do Santa Clara and Vizela tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Vizela in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vizela edge out Santa Clara 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vizela beat Santa Clara 0-1 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 0.92 xG and Vizela 1.84 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Santa Clara fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Vizela landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.80 / defence 1.60 against Vizela attack 1.13 / defence 0.89, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 19% | Draw 23% | Vizela 59%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 53%, Vizela 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vizela's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santa Clara 0.92 PPG, Vizela 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vizela win broke the near-deadlock. Santa Clara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Vizela (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.