Santa Clara 3-2 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Santa Clara host GIL Vicente at Estádio de São Miguel in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 May 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Santa Clara — All Games: 0W 1D 9L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Santa Clara at Estádio de São Miguel this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Santa Clara are significantly better at Estádio de São Miguel than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIL Vicente stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
GIL Vicente's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour GIL Vicente — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Santa Clara have won 1, GIL Vicente 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2022, ended 0–1 with GIL Vicente winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
GIL Vicente in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 52% versus GIL Vicente 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 53% | GIL Vicente 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 0.98 xG and GIL Vicente 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.771 / defence 1.429 | GIL Vicente attack 0.858 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.044. Santa Clara's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Santa Clara games / 64 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 28% | Draw 28% | GIL Vicente 43%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | GIL Vicente 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIL Vicente at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Santa Clara 60% | GIL Vicente 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 28% | Draw 28% | GIL Vicente 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Santa Clara 0.98 / GIL Vicente 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.771 / def 1.429 | GIL Vicente attack 0.858 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.28
GIL Vicente xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Santa Clara 3 - 2 GIL Vicente.
Where is Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente part of?
Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 28% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Santa Clara and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and GIL Vicente?
Record (3 meetings): Santa Clara 1W | Draws 1 | GIL Vicente 1W.
What form are Santa Clara and GIL Vicente in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Santa Clara's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
28%
3.53
28%
3.54
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.26
1.28
GIL Vicente xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
8%
12.69
16%
6.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.4 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.28 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Santa Clara come into this having played 64 games, going 12W 20D 32L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, GIL Vicente sit at 1.28 PPG from 64 outings (21W 19D 24L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five.
GIL Vicente carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Santa Clara — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Santa Clara's home form reads 10W 11D 11L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Santa Clara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, GIL Vicente have taken 1.25 points per game from 32 outings (11W 7D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Santa Clara are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.14 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Current Season
GIL Vicente
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 12W 20D 32L in their last 64 games (0.88 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 21W 19D 24L in their last 64 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or GIL Vicente away?
Santa Clara's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 1.28 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Santa Clara's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Santa Clara
1
Draws
2
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and GIL Vicente?
From 8 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 5, GIL Vicente have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Santa Clara 1-0 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and GIL Vicente?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 59%, GIL Vicente 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Santa Clara) and 56% (GIL Vicente). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Santa Clara have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play GIL Vicente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Santa Clara's games and 59% of GIL Vicente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Santa Clara's matches and 56% of GIL Vicente's.
Do Santa Clara and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Santa Clara defy the odds to beat GIL Vicente 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat GIL Vicente 3-2 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 0.98 xG and GIL Vicente 1.28 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Santa Clara beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.77 / defence 1.43 against GIL Vicente attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 28% | Draw 28% | GIL Vicente 43%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Santa Clara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 53%, GIL Vicente 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Santa Clara winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Santa Clara (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.