Pacos Ferreira 1-1 Chaves – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Chaves at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pacos Ferreira vs Chaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 15 as Pacos Ferreira welcome Chaves to Estádio da Capital do Móvel. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 January 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacos Ferreira stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacos Ferreira's home record at Estádio da Capital do Móvel: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chaves — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Chaves have posted 4W 0D 4L from 8 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Chaves are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Pacos Ferreira's 30% rate and Chaves's 25% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Data
Pacos Ferreira trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 69% of games.
Chaves trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Pacos Ferreira 31% | Chaves 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pacos Ferreira 44% | Chaves 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 1.06 xG and Chaves 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.687 / defence 1.294 | Chaves attack 0.915 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.058. Pacos Ferreira's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Pacos Ferreira games / 14 Chaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 31% | Draw 28% | Chaves 41%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Chaves 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chaves as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pacos Ferreira 30% | Chaves 25% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Jan 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 31% | Draw 28% | Chaves 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Pacos Ferreira 1.06 / Chaves 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.687 / def 1.294 | Chaves attack 0.915 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Chaves (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Chaves xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs Chaves kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs Chaves kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 8 January 2023 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs Chaves?
Pacos Ferreira 1 - 1 Chaves.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs Chaves part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs Chaves is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 31% chance of winning, Chaves a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Chaves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Chaves in?
Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Chaves (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pacos Ferreira's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Chaves's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Chaves's attack versus Pacos Ferreira's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chaves Win
31%
3.21
28%
3.56
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
2.31
1.25
Chaves xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
9%
11.24
14%
7.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 1.25 for Chaves, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs Chaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pacos Ferreira come into this having played 16 games, going 0W 2D 14L for 0.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chaves sit at 1.38 PPG from 16 outings (6W 4D 6L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chaves carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.26 PPG clear of Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pacos Ferreira's home form reads 0W 1D 7L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Chaves have taken 1.50 points per game from 8 outings (4W 0D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pacos Ferreira are averaging 0.44 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 0.94 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
Chaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Chaves in coming into this match?
Pacos Ferreira have gone 0W 2D 14L in their last 16 games (0.12 PPG), while Chaves have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacos Ferreira at home or Chaves away?
Chaves's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacos Ferreira at home: 0.12 PPG; Chaves away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacos Ferreira and Chaves runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pacos Ferreira
1
Draws
1
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Chaves?
From 2 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 0, Chaves have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Chaves 2-0 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and Chaves?
Chaves have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Pacos Ferreira 25% BTTS, Chaves 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Pacos Ferreira) and 50% (Chaves).
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira have failed to score in 75% of games; Chaves in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacos Ferreira play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Pacos Ferreira's recent matches and 25% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacos Ferreira vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Pacos Ferreira's recent games and 50% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacos Ferreira and Chaves tend to score early?
Pacos Ferreira have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Chaves in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pacos Ferreira and Chaves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacos Ferreira and Chaves finished level at 1-1 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 1.06 xG and Chaves 1.25 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 0.69 / defence 1.29 against Chaves attack 0.92 / defence 1.14, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 31% | Draw 28% | Chaves 41%, with Chaves to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacos Ferreira 44%, Chaves 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did.
Chaves's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chaves arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.