Maritimo 1-2 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Braga at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Maritimo vs SC Braga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Maritimo host SC Braga at Estádio dos Barreiros in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 February 2023 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Maritimo — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Maritimo's home record at Estádio dos Barreiros: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Braga stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, SC Braga have posted 8W 0D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SC Braga are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Maritimo have won 1, SC Braga 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 0–5 with SC Braga winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Maritimo trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
SC Braga trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Maritimo 51% versus SC Braga 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 43% | SC Braga 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.10 xG and SC Braga 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.735 / defence 0.962 | SC Braga attack 1.425 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 0.983. Maritimo's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SC Braga have an above-average attack strength of 1.425 — the away xG of 1.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Maritimo games / 53 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 30% | Draw 27% | SC Braga 42%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | SC Braga 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Braga as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Braga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Maritimo 40% | SC Braga 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio dos Barreiros • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 30% | Draw 27% | SC Braga 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Maritimo 1.10 / SC Braga 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.735 / def 0.962 | SC Braga attack 1.425 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.380 / away 0.983 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
1.35
SC Braga xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs SC Braga kick off?
Maritimo vs SC Braga kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs SC Braga?
Maritimo 1 - 2 SC Braga.
Where is Maritimo vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What competition is Maritimo vs SC Braga part of?
Maritimo vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 30% chance of winning, SC Braga a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Maritimo and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and SC Braga?
Record (3 meetings): Maritimo 1W | Draws 0 | SC Braga 2W.
What form are Maritimo and SC Braga in?
Maritimo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. SC Braga (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Maritimo's attack rating (0.73) and SC Braga's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus Maritimo's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
30%
3.29
27%
3.69
42%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.44
1.35
SC Braga xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.35
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
8%
12.66
14%
7.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Maritimo and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.35 for SC Braga, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Maritimo come into this having played 53 games, going 12W 15D 26L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Braga sit at 2.04 PPG from 53 outings (33W 9D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Braga carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Maritimo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Maritimo's home form reads 6W 8D 12L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Braga have taken 2.00 points per game from 26 outings (16W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Maritimo are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 1.79 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: SC Braga in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 12W 15D 26L in their last 53 games (0.96 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 33W 9D 11L in their last 53 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 1.00 PPG; SC Braga away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Maritimo or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Maritimo have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, SC Braga in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
SC Braga go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2022, when SC Braga won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Maritimo's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Maritimo
0
Draws
3
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and SC Braga?
From 4 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 1, SC Braga have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2023, when Maritimo 1-2 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Maritimo 42%, SC Braga 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Maritimo) and 58% (SC Braga).
On the defensive side: Maritimo keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; SC Braga in 46%; Maritimo have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play SC Braga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Maritimo's recent matches and 46% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Maritimo vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Maritimo's recent games and 58% of SC Braga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and SC Braga tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Maritimo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Maritimo 1-2 at Estádio dos Barreiros, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 1.10 xG and SC Braga 1.35 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 0.73 / defence 0.96 against SC Braga attack 1.43 / defence 1.08, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 30% | Draw 27% | SC Braga 42%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 43%, SC Braga 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
SC Braga's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Maritimo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.