Maritimo 1-1 Belenenses – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Maritimo at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Maritimo vs Belenenses encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Belenenses travel to Estádio dos Barreiros to take on Maritimo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 January 2022, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Maritimo have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Maritimo have posted 3W 3D 2L at Estádio dos Barreiros — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Belenenses — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Belenenses, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Belenenses's away record: 0W 3D 6L from 9 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 11% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Maritimo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Maritimo, 0 for Belenenses and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Maritimo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Maritimo in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Belenenses in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they fail to score in 61% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Maritimo 61% versus Belenenses 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 50% | Belenenses 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.57 xG and Belenenses 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 1.153 / defence 0.936 | Belenenses attack 0.418 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.435. Belenenses bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Maritimo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Maritimo games / 18 Belenenses games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 61% | Draw 27% | Belenenses 12%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 1.64 | Draw 3.70 | Belenenses 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Maritimo (61%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Belenenses's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Maritimo are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Maritimo 50% | Belenenses 11% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Belenenses | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio dos Barreiros • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 61% | Draw 27% | Belenenses 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 35% | xG Maritimo 1.57 / Belenenses 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 1.153 / def 0.936 | Belenenses attack 0.418 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.076 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Maritimo (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Belenenses xG
35%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Belenenses kick off?
Maritimo vs Belenenses kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Belenenses?
Maritimo 1 - 1 Belenenses.
Where is Maritimo vs Belenenses being played?
The match is being played at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What competition is Maritimo vs Belenenses part of?
Maritimo vs Belenenses is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Belenenses?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 61% chance of winning, Belenenses a 12% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Maritimo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Belenenses?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Maritimo and Belenenses will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Belenenses have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Belenenses?
Record (1 meetings): Maritimo 1W | Draws 0 | Belenenses 0W.
What form are Maritimo and Belenenses in?
Maritimo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Belenenses (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Maritimo's attack at 1.15x the league average against Belenenses's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Belenenses's attack versus Maritimo's defence, projects 0.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.6%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Maritimo Win
61%
1.64
27%
3.73
12%
8.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.6%
Home win
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.13
0.56
Belenenses xG
1.64
61%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
8.24
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
57%
1.75
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
35%
2.87
3%
39.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 10.5 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.6 | 8.2 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Belenenses?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Belenenses expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Maritimo and 0.56 for Belenenses, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Belenenses?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Maritimo have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 6W 5D 7L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Belenenses's form line: 2W 5D 11L from 18 games, 0.61 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Belenenses is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Maritimo are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Belenenses.
Venue Form
On home soil, Maritimo have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
On the road, Belenenses have gone 0W 3D 5L from 8 away games — 0.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Maritimo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Maritimo are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Belenenses are on 0.56 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Maritimo have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Blended
Belenenses
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Belenenses in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 games (1.28 PPG), while Belenenses have gone 2W 5D 11L in their last 18 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or Belenenses away?
Maritimo's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 1.50 PPG; Belenenses away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Maritimo
1
Draws
0
Belenenses
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Belenenses?
From 2 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 1, Belenenses have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Belenenses last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2022, when Maritimo 1-1 Belenenses.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Belenenses?
Maritimo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Maritimo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Maritimo 50% BTTS, Belenenses 12%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Maritimo and 12% for Belenenses.
On the defensive side: Maritimo keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Belenenses in 88%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Belenenses away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Belenenses?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Maritimo's recent matches and 12% of Belenenses's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Maritimo vs Belenenses usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Maritimo's recent games and 12% of Belenenses's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and Belenenses tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Belenenses in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Maritimo and Belenenses share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Maritimo and Belenenses finished level at 1-1 at Estádio dos Barreiros, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 1.57 xG and Belenenses 0.56 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 1.15 / defence 0.94 against Belenenses attack 0.42 / defence 1.26, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 61% | Draw 27% | Belenenses 12%, with Maritimo to win its most likely call at 61%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 50%, Belenenses 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Belenenses's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Maritimo arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.61. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.