GIL Vicente 4-0 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIL Vicente vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
GIL Vicente and Famalicao meet at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 December 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
GIL Vicente (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 games at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this term (0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 3L across 6 road games this term (1.17 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.00 for Famalicao. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Famalicao half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — GIL Vicente 58% and Famalicao 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 50% | Famalicao 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.20 xG and Famalicao 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.835 / defence 1.123 | Famalicao attack 1.135 / defence 1.339. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.375. Famalicao bring a strong defensive rating of 1.339 — this is suppressing GIL Vicente's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 GIL Vicente games / 12 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 23% | Draw 30% | Famalicao 47%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | Famalicao 2.13. Famalicao hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.20 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 50% | Famalicao 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 23% | Draw 30% | Famalicao 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG GIL Vicente 1.20 / Famalicao 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.835 / def 1.123 | Famalicao attack 1.135 / def 1.339 | league avg home 1.075 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Famalicao xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Famalicao kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Famalicao kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
GIL Vicente 4 - 0 Famalicao.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Famalicao part of?
GIL Vicente vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 23% chance of winning, Famalicao a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both GIL Vicente and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Famalicao?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIL Vicente and Famalicao in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Famalicao (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 0.83x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (1.14x) against GIL Vicente's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
23%
4.37
30%
3.32
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.95
1.75
Famalicao xG
4.37
23%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
17%
5.77
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
4%
25.19
14%
7.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.75 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, GIL Vicente have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 3W 5D 4L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Famalicao's form line: 2W 4D 6L from 12 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for GIL Vicente against 0.83 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, GIL Vicente have posted 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
On the road, Famalicao have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Famalicao in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Famalicao in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 3W 5D 4L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Famalicao away?
Famalicao's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 0.83 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 5-0 on 1 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
GIL Vicente
4
Draws
3
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Famalicao?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 3, Famalicao have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when GIL Vicente 5-0 Famalicao.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 50%, Famalicao 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (GIL Vicente) and 67% (Famalicao). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Famalicao?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of GIL Vicente's games and 67% of Famalicao's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIL Vicente vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of GIL Vicente's matches and 67% of Famalicao's.
Do GIL Vicente and Famalicao tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant GIL Vicente run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Famalicao.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Famalicao 4-0 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.20 xG and Famalicao 1.75 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. GIL Vicente beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Famalicao landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.83 / defence 1.12 against Famalicao attack 1.14 / defence 1.34, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 23% | Draw 30% | Famalicao 47%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a GIL Vicente win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 50%, Famalicao 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Famalicao's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.17 PPG, Famalicao 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.