GIL Vicente 1-1 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as GIL Vicente take on Arouca.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos plays host to GIL Vicente versus Arouca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Friday 5 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
GIL Vicente's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's home record at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos: 1W 1D 3L from 5 Primeira Liga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Arouca (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Arouca have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Arouca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 50% versus Arouca 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 50% | Arouca 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.14 xG and Arouca 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.914 / defence 1.220 | Arouca attack 0.672 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.140. Arouca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing GIL Vicente's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 GIL Vicente games / 10 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 36% | Draw 38% | Arouca 26%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.78 | Draw 2.63 | Arouca 3.85. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 40% | Arouca 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 36% | Draw 38% | Arouca 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 45% | xG GIL Vicente 1.14 / Arouca 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.914 / def 1.220 | Arouca attack 0.672 / def 1.298 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Arouca xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Arouca kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Arouca kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 November 2021 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
GIL Vicente 1 - 1 Arouca.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Arouca part of?
GIL Vicente vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 36% chance of winning, Arouca a 26% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both GIL Vicente and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Arouca?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIL Vicente and Arouca in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Arouca (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIL Vicente's attack rating (0.91) and Arouca's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.67x) against GIL Vicente's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.75
38%
2.64
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.08
0.94
Arouca xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
8%
12.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.94 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIL Vicente's recent record stands at 3W 3D 4L from 10 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 5L across 10 games — 0.90 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for GIL Vicente against 0.90 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, GIL Vicente have managed 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 0W 2D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arouca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Arouca in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Arouca have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Arouca away?
GIL Vicente's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 0.80 PPG; Arouca away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 3-0 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
GIL Vicente
6
Draws
4
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Arouca?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 0, Arouca have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when GIL Vicente 1-3 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 40%, Arouca 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for GIL Vicente and 60% for Arouca. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente have failed to score in 40% of games; Arouca in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 40% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of GIL Vicente's matches and 60% of Arouca's.
Do GIL Vicente and Arouca tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Arouca in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIL Vicente and Arouca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 11, as GIL Vicente and Arouca drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.14 xG and Arouca 0.94 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.91 / defence 1.22 against Arouca attack 0.67 / defence 1.30, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 36% | Draw 38% | Arouca 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 50%, Arouca 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Arouca's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.20 PPG, Arouca 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Arouca (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.