GIL Vicente 1-1 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Arouca at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIL Vicente vs Arouca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos plays host to GIL Vicente versus Arouca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
GIL Vicente's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
GIL Vicente's home record at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Arouca (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Arouca have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Arouca hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Arouca have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Arouca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 48% versus Arouca 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 48% | Arouca 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.00 xG and Arouca 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.691 / defence 0.971 | Arouca attack 1.018 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.207. GIL Vicente's attack strength of 0.691 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 GIL Vicente games / 66 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 31% | Draw 29% | Arouca 40%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Arouca 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Arouca as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arouca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: GIL Vicente 30% | Arouca 80%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 31% | Draw 29% | Arouca 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG GIL Vicente 1.00 / Arouca 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.691 / def 0.971 | Arouca attack 1.018 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Arouca (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Arouca xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Arouca kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Arouca kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
GIL Vicente 1 - 1 Arouca.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Arouca part of?
GIL Vicente vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 31% chance of winning, Arouca a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both GIL Vicente and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Arouca?
Record (7 meetings): GIL Vicente 0W | Draws 4 | Arouca 3W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Arouca in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Arouca (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIL Vicente's attack rating (0.69) and Arouca's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (1.02x) against GIL Vicente's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
31%
3.25
29%
3.45
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.20
1.19
Arouca xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
9%
10.72
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.19 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIL Vicente's recent record stands at 17W 17D 32L from 66 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 28L across 66 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.21 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, GIL Vicente have managed 11W 11D 11L from 33 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 10W 8D 15L across 33 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.27 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Current Season
Arouca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Arouca in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 17W 17D 32L in their last 66 games (1.03 PPG), while Arouca have gone 21W 17D 28L in their last 66 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Arouca away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.33 PPG; Arouca away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 3-0 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
GIL Vicente
6
Draws
4
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Arouca?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 0, Arouca have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when GIL Vicente 1-3 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 48%, Arouca 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (GIL Vicente) and 67% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 30% of games; Arouca in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 61% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 67% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Arouca tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Arouca in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIL Vicente and Arouca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente and Arouca finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.00 xG and Arouca 1.19 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.69 / defence 0.97 against Arouca attack 1.02 / defence 1.12, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 31% | Draw 29% | Arouca 40%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 48%, Arouca 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Arouca's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.03 PPG, Arouca 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.