Famalicao 3-1 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Estoril fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Famalicao and Estoril meet at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 April 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Famalicao have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Famalicao's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
Estoril (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Estoril away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Famalicao, 0.90 for Estoril — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Famalicao goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Estoril goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 55% versus Estoril 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 55% | Estoril 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.20 xG and Estoril 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.920 / defence 1.159 | Estoril attack 0.590 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.063 / away 1.183. Estoril bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Famalicao's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Famalicao games / 31 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 44% | Draw 33% | Estoril 24%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Estoril 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Famalicao at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 40% | Estoril 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Friday 29 Apr 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 44% | Draw 33% | Estoril 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Famalicao 1.20 / Estoril 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.920 / def 1.159 | Estoril attack 0.590 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.063 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Estoril xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Estoril kick off?
Famalicao vs Estoril kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 29 April 2022 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Estoril?
Famalicao 3 - 1 Estoril.
Where is Famalicao vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Estoril part of?
Famalicao vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 44% chance of winning, Estoril a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Famalicao and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Estoril?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Famalicao and Estoril in?
Famalicao (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Estoril (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (0.92) and Estoril's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Estoril's attack (0.59x) against Famalicao's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
44%
2.28
33%
3.06
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.01
0.81
Estoril xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
20%
5.13
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 10.9 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.81 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Famalicao have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 6W 12D 13L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Estoril's form line: 8W 12D 11L from 31 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Famalicao against 1.16 for Estoril. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Famalicao have posted 1.07 PPG from 15 outings (3W 7D 5L).
On the road, Estoril have gone 5W 4D 6L from 15 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Famalicao are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.10 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Current Season
Estoril
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Estoril in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 6W 12D 13L in their last 31 games (0.97 PPG), while Estoril have gone 8W 12D 11L in their last 31 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Estoril away?
Estoril's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.07 PPG; Estoril away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Estoril in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Famalicao won 4-0 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Estoril — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Famalicao
2
Draws
3
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Estoril?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 5, Estoril have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Estoril 1-1 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Estoril?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 53%, Estoril 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Famalicao) and 33% (Estoril).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Estoril in 33%; Famalicao have failed to score in 33% of games; Estoril in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Famalicao's recent matches and 40% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Famalicao's recent games and 33% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Estoril tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Estoril in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Famalicao cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Estoril 3-1 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.20 xG and Estoril 0.81 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Famalicao beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.92 / defence 1.16 against Estoril attack 0.59 / defence 1.23, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 44% | Draw 33% | Estoril 24%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 55%, Estoril 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Estoril's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 0.97 PPG, Estoril 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Estoril (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.