Famalicao 0-0 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arouca at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Arouca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arouca make the trip to Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho to face Famalicao in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Monday 31 January 2022 at 21:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Famalicao have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's home record at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho: 1W 4D 4L from 9 Primeira Liga appearances (0.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Arouca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Famalicao against 1.10 for Arouca. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Famalicao, 1 for Arouca and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Arouca winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Famalicao — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Arouca — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Famalicao 63% and Arouca 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 63% | Arouca 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 0.96 xG and Arouca 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.691 / defence 1.169 | Arouca attack 0.722 / defence 1.290. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.427. Famalicao's attack strength of 0.691 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Arouca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.290 — this is suppressing Famalicao's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Famalicao games / 19 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 28% | Draw 31% | Arouca 40%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Arouca 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arouca are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arouca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Famalicao 56% | Arouca 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Monday 31 Jan 2022, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 28% | Draw 31% | Arouca 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Famalicao 0.96 / Arouca 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.691 / def 1.169 | Arouca attack 0.722 / def 1.290 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Arouca (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Arouca xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Arouca kick off?
Famalicao vs Arouca kicked off at 21:15 on Monday 31 January 2022 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Arouca?
Famalicao 0 - 0 Arouca.
Where is Famalicao vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Arouca part of?
Famalicao vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 28% chance of winning, Arouca a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Famalicao and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Arouca?
Record (1 meetings): Famalicao 0W | Draws 0 | Arouca 1W.
What form are Famalicao and Arouca in?
Famalicao (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Arouca (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Famalicao's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Arouca's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.72x) against Famalicao's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
28%
3.55
31%
3.18
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.17
1.21
Arouca xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
8%
11.85
15%
6.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 13.8 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.21 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao's recent record stands at 3W 7D 9L from 19 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 10L across 19 games — 0.89 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for Famalicao against 0.89 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 1W 4D 4L from 9 games — 0.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 1W 4D 4L across 9 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.00 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Famalicao have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Arouca in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Arouca in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 3W 7D 9L in their last 19 games (0.84 PPG), while Arouca have gone 4W 5D 10L in their last 19 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Arouca away?
Famalicao's home record (0.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 0.78 PPG; Arouca away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 4-1 on 10 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Famalicao
3
Draws
4
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Arouca?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 3, Arouca have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Famalicao 1-0 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Famalicao, 78% for Arouca — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Famalicao) and 67% (Arouca). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Arouca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Famalicao's games and 78% of Arouca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Famalicao vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Famalicao's matches and 67% of Arouca's.
Do Famalicao and Arouca tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Arouca in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Famalicao's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao and Arouca finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 0.96 xG and Arouca 1.21 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Famalicao fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Arouca landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.69 / defence 1.17 against Arouca attack 0.72 / defence 1.29, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 28% | Draw 31% | Arouca 40%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 63%, Arouca 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Arouca's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 0.84 PPG, Arouca 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Famalicao (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.