Estrela 0-2 Tondela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estrela at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estrela vs Tondela encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Estrela and Tondela meet at Estádio José Gomes in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 February 2026 at 20:45 UTC.
Form
Estrela (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio José Gomes, Estrela have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Tondela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tondela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tondela away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Estrela's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Tondela's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Estrela, 0 for Tondela and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Estrela — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Tondela — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 50% versus Tondela 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estrela 54% | Tondela 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.57 xG and Tondela 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 0.854 / defence 1.185 | Tondela attack 0.744 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.218. Data: 56 Estrela games / 22 Tondela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estrela 49% | Draw 25% | Tondela 26%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Tondela 3.85. Estrela hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Estrela as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estrela if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Estrela 50% | Tondela 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs Tondela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio José Gomes • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 20:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 49% | Draw 25% | Tondela 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Estrela 1.57 / Tondela 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 0.854 / def 1.185 | Tondela attack 0.744 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Estrela (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Tondela xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estrela vs Tondela kick off?
Estrela vs Tondela kicked off at 20:45 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Estádio José Gomes.
What was the final score in Estrela vs Tondela?
Estrela 0 - 2 Tondela.
Where is Estrela vs Tondela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Gomes.
What competition is Estrela vs Tondela part of?
Estrela vs Tondela is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs Tondela?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 49% chance of winning, Tondela a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Estrela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Tondela?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Estrela and Tondela will score (BTTS).
Will Estrela vs Tondela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Tondela?
Record (1 meetings): Estrela 0W | Draws 1 | Tondela 0W.
What form are Estrela and Tondela in?
Estrela (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Tondela (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Estrela's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Tondela's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Tondela's attack (0.74x) against Estrela's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 56/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estrela Win
49%
2.05
25%
3.97
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Estrela xG
Total xG
2.65
1.07
Tondela xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
5%
18.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs Tondela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Estrela and Tondela expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Estrela and 1.07 for Tondela, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs Tondela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estrela's recent record stands at 5W 8D 9L from 22 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Estrela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tondela, meanwhile, have gone 3W 6D 13L across 22 games — 0.68 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Tondela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Estrela against 0.68 for Tondela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Estrela have managed 3W 4D 4L from 11 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tondela's away record stands at 2W 2D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estrela come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Estrela are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Tondela are on 0.68 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Blended
Tondela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estrela and Tondela in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 5W 8D 9L in their last 22 games (1.05 PPG), while Tondela have gone 3W 6D 13L in their last 22 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or Tondela away?
Estrela's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.18 PPG; Tondela away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Estrela
1
Draws
1
Tondela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Tondela?
From 2 meetings on record, Estrela have won 0, Tondela have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estrela and Tondela last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Estrela 0-2 Tondela.
Who has won more matches between Estrela and Tondela?
Tondela have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Tondela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estrela 46%, Tondela 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Estrela and 73% for Tondela. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estrela have failed to score in 36% of games; Tondela in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / Tondela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estrela play Tondela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Estrela's recent matches and 36% of Tondela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estrela vs Tondela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Estrela's matches and 73% of Tondela's.
Do Estrela and Tondela tend to score early?
Estrela have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Tondela in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tondela cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Estrela.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tondela beat Estrela 0-2 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.57 xG and Tondela 1.07 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Estrela fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Tondela outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.85 / defence 1.19 against Tondela attack 0.74 / defence 1.19, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estrela 49% | Draw 25% | Tondela 26%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Tondela win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 54%, Tondela 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estrela's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tondela's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estrela 1.05 PPG, Tondela 0.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tondela win broke the near-deadlock. Estrela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Tondela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.