Estrela vs GIL Vicente – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estrela vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Estrela and GIL Vicente meet at in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Estrela (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , Estrela have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
GIL Vicente's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Estrela, 2 for GIL Vicente and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Estrela goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 51% versus GIL Vicente 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estrela 58% | GIL Vicente 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.09 xG and GIL Vicente 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 0.942 / defence 1.140 | GIL Vicente attack 0.905 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.346. Data: 44 Estrela games / 43 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estrela 30% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 44%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | GIL Vicente 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Estrela 50% | GIL Vicente 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 30% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Estrela 1.09 / GIL Vicente 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 0.942 / def 1.140 | GIL Vicente attack 0.905 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
1.39
GIL Vicente xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estrela vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Estrela vs GIL Vicente is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 December 2026.
What competition is Estrela vs GIL Vicente part of?
Estrela vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 30% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Estrela and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Estrela vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and GIL Vicente?
Record (6 meetings): Estrela 1W | Draws 3 | GIL Vicente 2W.
What form are Estrela and GIL Vicente in?
Estrela (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Estrela's attack at 0.94x the league average against GIL Vicente's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.91x) against Estrela's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
30%
3.38
27%
3.74
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Estrela xG
Total xG
2.48
1.39
GIL Vicente xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
7%
13.55
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Estrela and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Estrela and 1.39 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estrela come into this having played 43 games, going 8W 15D 20L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Estrela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GIL Vicente sit at 1.49 PPG from 43 outings (17W 13D 13L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Estrela — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Estrela's home form reads 5W 8D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, GIL Vicente have taken 1.29 points per game from 21 outings (6W 9D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Estrela are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.28 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: GIL Vicente in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estrela and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 8W 15D 20L in their last 43 games (0.91 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 17W 13D 13L in their last 43 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or GIL Vicente away?
GIL Vicente's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.10 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Estrela or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estrela have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estrela have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Estrela
3
Draws
2
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and GIL Vicente?
From 6 meetings on record, Estrela have won 1, GIL Vicente have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estrela and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Estrela 2-2 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between Estrela and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estrela 48%, GIL Vicente 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Estrela) and 52% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente in 38%; Estrela have failed to score in 38% of games; GIL Vicente in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estrela play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Estrela's recent matches and 48% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estrela vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Estrela's recent games and 52% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estrela and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Estrela have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.