Estoril 1-0 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estoril vs Moreirense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Estoril host Moreirense at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Estoril — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Moreirense have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Moreirense have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Estoril) versus 0.70 (Moreirense). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Estoril have won 0, Moreirense 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Moreirense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Estoril in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Moreirense in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 53% versus Moreirense 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 47% | Moreirense 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.35 xG and Moreirense 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.914 / defence 1.262 | Moreirense attack 0.657 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.182. Moreirense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing Estoril's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Estoril games / 32 Moreirense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 44% | Draw 30% | Moreirense 26%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Moreirense 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estoril are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estoril offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Estoril 60% | Moreirense 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 44% | Draw 30% | Moreirense 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Estoril 1.35 / Moreirense 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.914 / def 1.262 | Moreirense attack 0.657 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.070 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Estoril (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Moreirense xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Moreirense kick off?
Estoril vs Moreirense kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Moreirense?
Estoril 1 - 0 Moreirense.
Where is Estoril vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Moreirense part of?
Estoril vs Moreirense is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 44% chance of winning, Moreirense a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Estoril and Moreirense will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Moreirense?
Record (1 meetings): Estoril 0W | Draws 0 | Moreirense 1W.
What form are Estoril and Moreirense in?
Estoril (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Moreirense (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Estoril's attack at 0.91x the league average against Moreirense's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Moreirense's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
44%
2.28
30%
3.30
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.33
0.98
Moreirense xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
7%
14.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Estoril and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Estoril and 0.98 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Moreirense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estoril come into this having played 32 games, going 8W 12D 12L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Moreirense sit at 0.81 PPG from 32 outings (6W 8D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estoril on 1.12 PPG, Moreirense on 0.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Estoril's home form reads 3W 8D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Moreirense have taken 0.69 points per game from 16 outings (2W 5D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Estoril are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 0.91 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Current Season
Moreirense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Moreirense in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 8W 12D 12L in their last 32 games (1.12 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 6W 8D 18L in their last 32 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Moreirense away?
Estoril's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.06 PPG; Moreirense away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Estoril or Moreirense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Moreirense in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estoril and Moreirense runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Estoril's record when hosting Moreirense specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Estoril
3
Draws
4
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Moreirense?
From 8 meetings on record, Estoril have won 1, Moreirense have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Moreirense last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Moreirense 1-0 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Moreirense?
Moreirense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 62%, Moreirense 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Estoril) and 44% (Moreirense).
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Moreirense in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Moreirense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Estoril's games and 50% of Moreirense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estoril vs Moreirense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Estoril's recent games and 44% of Moreirense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Moreirense tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Moreirense in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estoril edge out Moreirense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Moreirense 1-0 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.35 xG and Moreirense 0.98 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Moreirense landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.91 / defence 1.26 against Moreirense attack 0.66 / defence 1.38, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 44% | Draw 30% | Moreirense 26%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 47%, Moreirense 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Moreirense's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 1.12 PPG, Moreirense 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.