Chaves 1-5 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Arouca at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chaves vs Arouca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chaves host Arouca at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 March 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Chaves — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chaves have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Arouca have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Arouca are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chaves register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Arouca in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chaves, 1 for Arouca and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 2–0 with Chaves winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Chaves in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Arouca in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 53% versus Arouca 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 46% | Arouca 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.16 xG and Arouca 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.829 / defence 1.138 | Arouca attack 1.096 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.258. Data: 57 Chaves games / 57 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 28% | Draw 25% | Arouca 47%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Arouca 2.13. Arouca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arouca are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arouca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chaves 70% | Arouca 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Friday 1 Mar 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 28% | Draw 25% | Arouca 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Chaves 1.16 / Arouca 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.829 / def 1.138 | Arouca attack 1.096 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Arouca (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Arouca xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Arouca kick off?
Chaves vs Arouca kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 1 March 2024 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Arouca?
Chaves 1 - 5 Arouca.
Where is Chaves vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Arouca part of?
Chaves vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 28% chance of winning, Arouca a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chaves and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Arouca?
Record (3 meetings): Chaves 1W | Draws 1 | Arouca 1W.
What form are Chaves and Arouca in?
Chaves (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Arouca (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chaves's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Arouca's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Arouca's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
28%
3.56
25%
3.99
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Chaves xG
Total xG
2.73
1.57
Arouca xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
6%
17.08
15%
6.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.3 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Chaves and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Chaves and 1.57 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Chaves have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 16W 16D 25L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arouca's form line: 24W 13D 20L from 57 games, 1.49 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chaves on 1.12 PPG, Arouca on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chaves have posted 1.25 PPG from 28 outings (9W 8D 11L).
On the road, Arouca have gone 9W 9D 10L from 28 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Chaves are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.30 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Arouca in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 16W 16D 25L in their last 57 games (1.12 PPG), while Arouca have gone 24W 13D 20L in their last 57 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Arouca away?
Arouca's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.25 PPG; Arouca away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Chaves or Arouca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chaves have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Arouca in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chaves and Arouca runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2024, when Arouca won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chaves's record when hosting Arouca specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chaves
1
Draws
2
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Arouca?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 1, Arouca have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2024, when Chaves 1-5 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Arouca see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 64%, Arouca 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chaves) and 36% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: Arouca in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Arouca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Chaves's games and 50% of Arouca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chaves vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chaves's recent games and 36% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Arouca tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Arouca in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Arouca run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Chaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca beat Chaves 1-5 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.16 xG and Arouca 1.57 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Arouca outscored their 1.57 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.83 / defence 1.14 against Arouca attack 1.10 / defence 0.90, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 28% | Draw 25% | Arouca 47%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 46%, Arouca 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Arouca's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chaves 1.12 PPG, Arouca 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Chaves (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.