Boavista 1-1 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Braga at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Boavista vs SC Braga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Boavista host SC Braga at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Boavista — All Games: 2W 7D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Boavista have gone 1W 8D 1L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Braga stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SC Braga have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SC Braga — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Boavista, 0 for SC Braga and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Boavista trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
SC Braga trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Boavista 75% and SC Braga 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boavista 46% | SC Braga 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 1.10 xG and SC Braga 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 0.987 / defence 1.159 | SC Braga attack 0.978 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.052 / away 1.335. Data: 24 Boavista games / 24 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boavista 25% | Draw 30% | SC Braga 45%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | SC Braga 2.22. SC Braga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Braga as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Braga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Boavista 80% | SC Braga 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 25% | Draw 30% | SC Braga 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Boavista 1.10 / SC Braga 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 0.987 / def 1.159 | SC Braga attack 0.978 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.052 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
1.51
SC Braga xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs SC Braga kick off?
Boavista vs SC Braga kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs SC Braga?
Boavista 1 - 1 SC Braga.
Where is Boavista vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs SC Braga part of?
Boavista vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 25% chance of winning, SC Braga a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Boavista and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and SC Braga?
Record (1 meetings): Boavista 0W | Draws 1 | SC Braga 0W.
What form are Boavista and SC Braga in?
Boavista (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. SC Braga (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Boavista's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against SC Braga's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus Boavista's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
25%
3.97
30%
3.30
45%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Boavista xG
Total xG
2.61
1.51
SC Braga xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.25
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
6%
18.03
15%
6.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Boavista and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Boavista and 1.51 for SC Braga, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Boavista's recent record stands at 4W 13D 7L from 24 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Braga, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 5L across 24 games — 1.88 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Braga by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Boavista heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Boavista have managed 2W 8D 1L from 11 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Braga's away record stands at 6W 2D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Boavista are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 1.67 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: SC Braga in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 4W 13D 7L in their last 24 games (1.04 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 13W 6D 5L in their last 24 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 1.27 PPG; SC Braga away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Boavista or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boavista have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, SC Braga in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
SC Braga go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2024, when SC Braga won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Boavista's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Boavista
3
Draws
5
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and SC Braga?
From 8 meetings on record, Boavista have won 0, SC Braga have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when SC Braga 3-0 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boavista 73%, SC Braga 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Boavista) and 46% (SC Braga).
On the defensive side: SC Braga in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play SC Braga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Boavista's games and 46% of SC Braga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boavista vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Boavista's recent games and 46% of SC Braga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boavista and SC Braga tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Boavista and SC Braga share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boavista and SC Braga finished level at 1-1 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 25, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 1.10 xG and SC Braga 1.51 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.99 / defence 1.16 against SC Braga attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 25% | Draw 30% | SC Braga 45%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 46%, SC Braga 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
SC Braga's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.